Roland Garros 2013 – Takeaways from France

1) He’ll always have Paris…

Steven Tignor commented ‘It’s Paris, it’s spring, it’s clay, it’s Rafa.’ Rafael Nadal was the bookmakers’ favorite to win Roland Garros this year and so it has come to pass. By his standards, it was a pretty stressful tournament, but the inevitable semifinal-cum-final against Novak Djokovic was THE defining match of the tournament. They churned out another epic (as they always seem to do) which Nadal won in 5 grueling sets. The final against David Ferrer was a mere formality. Nadal will be back next year to defend his title for an unprecedented 9^th time. He now owns the record for the most wins in a single Grand Slam with 8. Robin Soderling’s victory over Nadal in 2009 in Roland Garros seems to have reached mythical proportions just about now. Enough said, you might think. But you can sense that Novak Djokovic bridged the gap in Paris. Which leads us to…

2) The Djoker was the man to beat, not Rafa

On the surface (pun unintended!), this may look like an incredulous statement, but this was Novak’s tournament to lose (lose he did, but not before he gave Rafa an almighty scare!). When Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic in the semis of the 2011 edition of Roland Garros, the unmistakable image was Federer wagging his index finger after that match, almost as if saying ‘I’m still numero uno.’ When Nadal beat Djokovic in the semis this year, there was a similar reaction. It was more relief than jubilation. Djokovic got as close as anyone has ever come to upending Nadal in a best-of-five match in Paris. And the incredible thing is, Djokovic wasn’t even playing his best tennis. Anyone who throws in 70 unforced errors against Nadal anywhere, let alone in Court Philippe Chatrier, is doomed to fight a losing battle. That he took it to five sets is a tribute to his cussedness (oddly enough, one of Rafa’s more admirable traits). He was distracted by the whole controversy of watering the courts which caused him to effectively throw the final game and the match. The fact is that Djokovic takes Nadal out of his comfort zone like nobody else can. The way he came back in the fourth set was a stirring effort. And from there, till 4-3 in the fifth, he effectively out-Nadal-ed Nadal. He is the only one who seems to make Nadal look helpless on court consistently (or simply put, Novak gives Rafa hell!). And just like with Federer, you almost sense that Djokovic will complete his Career Slam sooner rather later. You can bet he’ll put in a renewed effort next year. He may have lost, but this semifinal match might well be the one that has put the fear of Novak truly in Rafa’s head.

3) Ferrer has seen his first and possibly last Grand Slam final

I’m not discrediting the effort of David Ferrer this past fortnight, not by a long shot – he was, for lack of a better word, supreme till the final. But when Andy Murray announced his withdrawal from the French Open, it threw the dynamics of the draw way off. And Ferrer, as it turns out, was the biggest beneficiary. Coupled with a soft (relatively, of course!) draw, Federer’s burnout in the quarters, and Djokovic and Nadal in the other half, suddenly it became Ferrer’s best chance to reach his first Grand Slam final. He still had to beat what was in front of him and he did with aplomb. In the final, as was expected, he ran into an irresistible force and immovable object rolled into one, in Rafa. Strangely enough, it now moves Ferrer back up to No. 4 in the world, and Rafa demoted to No. 5. But Rafa will take that back easily, given that he now has virtually no points to defend through to next year’s Australian Open. He may even be World No. 1 by the time this year is done. Novak Djokovic better start adjusting his rearview mirror!

4) The inevitable decline of Roger Federer may just have begun

We’re through half a season and Roger Federer has yet to win a title. This has been Federer’s worst season statistically since 2002. The huge effort from last year where he regained his beloved No. 1 ranking and broke Pete Sampras’ long standing record of most consecutive weeks at the numero uno spot has taken a lot out of Federer, it seems. And he has begun to look increasingly vulnerable this year, with some uncharacteristic losses and some expected ones. This may just be the start of Federer’s decline. He failed to take advantage of a seemingly easy draw at the French and the straight set loss to Jo Willy Tsonga seems to be the first nail in the coffin. A 17-Grand Slam winning journey has chalked up a lot of miles in Federer’s body, and for the first time since forever, Federer actually looks his age. I don’t think he has the legs anymore to beat the likes of Tsonga or Berdych, let alone the other members of the vaunted Big Four. Initially, Djokovic, Nadal and Murray were the only ones who went toe-to-toe with Federer over the course of a match and won, but the rest seem to have followed suit. Savour the rest of his playing days, folks, this might just be the beginning of the end. Then again, next up is Wimbledon, Centre Court is his second home, and he could just as easily turn the clock back a year.

5) Wimbledon is a toss-up between the Big Four

This year, Wimbledon might just be the most open tournament we’ve had in the last few years…..among the Big Four, that is. Rafael Nadal enters Wimbledon as he always does, with momentum from a Roland Garros win (the one time he lost at Roland Garros, he withdrew from Wimbledon). That said, he won’t be giving Novak Djokovic as much grief as he does on clay, given that grass has a mitigating effect on Nadal’s vicious lefty topspin. As previously mentioned, it’s Wimbledon, which means it is Roger Federer’s dog yard. He is the defending champ and will not let go of the title without baring a few teeth. Andy Murray got a whiff of the final last year, but the rain conspired to prompt the roof to close and he was left facing the greatest indoor player in history (Roger Federer, if anyone is still asking). What all this means is that there is no doubt that Wimbledon will be won by one of the Big Four, the real doubt is who among them. Odds makers may well make hay while the fickle British sun shines!