Roland Garros 2021: Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: (3) Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin

Date: 1 June 2021

Tournament: Roland Garros 2021

Round: First round (Round of 128)

Venue: Paris, France

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Red Clay

Prize Money: €17,171,108

Match timing: Not before 4 pm local time, 2 pm GMT, 10 am EST, 7.30 pm IST

Live telecast: USA - NBC Sports / Tennis Channel | UK - ITV | India - Star Sports / Disney+ Hotstar VIP

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Defending champion Rafael Nadal will launch his bid for a record-extending 14th Roland Garros title against Australian Alexei Popyrin.

While Nadal has remained as impeccable as ever at the French Open, his dominance in the lead-up to it has waned slightly over the past few years.

In 2019, the Spaniard lost in the semifinals of three consecutive tournaments on clay, before conquering Rome and then defending his Roland Garros title.

In 2020, Nadal entered Paris on the back of a quarterfinal defeat to Diego Schwartzman in Rome. He avenged that loss in the semifinals of the French Open and went on to win the tournament without dropping a set.

The 34-year-old has displayed the same vulnerability this year. He lost in the quarterfinals of Monte Carlo and Madrid, against Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev respectively. He edged out Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Barcelona final and was almost eliminated by Denis Shapovalov in the third round in Rome.

But he erased any potential doubts over his French Open chances with a victory over Novak Djokovic in the Rome final to lift his 10th title in the Italian capital.

Alexei Popyrin won his maiden ATP title this year

Alexei Popyrin won his first ATP title in Singapore in February, meaning he holds just one fewer title than Nadal this year. The Australian has won 15 of his 23 matches in 2021, while Nadal has won 18 of his 21. But that's where the similarities end.

Popyrin, a 6'5" Australian, has collected five career wins on clay, four of which have come in 2021. His 4-4 win-loss record on the dirt this season is significantly better than his 1-4 record prior to it. This proves the 21-year-old is improving.

At the French Open specifically, Popyrin has a 1-2 win-loss record, his sole victory coming over Ugo Humbert in 2019. His best result on clay was a round-of-16 appearance at the Madrid Open this year, where he lost to Nadal. His best win on the surface was over 18th-ranked Jannik Sinner in the same tournament.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

Rafael Nadal and Alexei Popyrin met at Madrid earlier this year

Rafael Nadal and Alexei Popyrin have squared off against one another only once on the tour. They met at the Madrid Masters this year, with Nadal winning 6-3 6-3 on the red clay.

Thus, Nadal leads Popyrin 1-0 in their career head-to-head meetings.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

As per the latest Elo ratings provided by Tennis Abstract, Rafael Nadal's adjusted clay Elo is 2101 while Alexei Popyrin's is 1696. The difference in their scores equates to a win probability of 91.14% for Nadal.

The Spaniard is expected to win around 62% of his service points, while Popyrin is expected to win around 52% of his.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in straight sets, for the loss of 10 games.

---

Please help Sportskeeda improve its tennis coverage. Take a 30-second survey now!