Roland Garros 2021: Roger Federer's projected path to the final

With the 2021 French Open set to start on Sunday, the men's singles draw has been released with Roger Federer listed as the eighth seed. Federer will be playing in his first Grand Slam since the 2020 Australian Open and first French Open since 2019.

While Roger Federer has admitted to having low expectations at Roland Garros this year, there is no doubt he would benefit from a few best-of-five matches ahead of Wimbledon.

On that note, let's take a look at how Roger Federer's draw could unfold.

French Open 2021Federer vs qualifier in Round 1Possible 2d rounder vs Cilic or French wc RinderknechPossible 3d round vs Taylor FritzPossible 4th round vs BerrettiniPossible QF vs DjokovicHighly improbable SF vs Nadal

— Christopher Clarey (@christophclarey) May 27, 2021

Roger Federer's 1st round opponent - qualifier

Roger Federer could face teenage sensation Carlos Alcaraz in the first round

Roger Federer has been drawn to face a qualifier in his first-round match and should be able to come through unscathed. Only one player from the qualifiers could give Federer some trouble - Carlos Alcaraz.

Roger Federer's likely 2nd round opponent - Marin Cilic / Arthur Rinderknech

Roger Federer could face old foe Marin Cilic in the second round

Should Roger Federer survive the first round, he could face Marin Cilic or Arthur Rinderknech. It is no secret that clay is one of Cilic's least favorite surfaces, but he is still a formidable opponent given his massive serve and forehand.

Federer has a 9-1 head-to-head advantage over Cilic (1-0 on clay) but they have not faced each other on the red dirt since 2011.

Rinderknech seems to be in impressive touch; he recently beat Jannik Sinner en route to the quarterfinals in Lyon. Federer and Rinderknech have never faced each other before.

Roger Federer's likely 3rd round opponent - Taylor Fritz / Dominik Koepfer

If Roger Federer advances, he could face one of Taylor Fritz, Dominik Koepfer, Mathias Bourgue or Joao Sousa in the third round. Fritz is the only seeded player amongst this quartet.

Federer has played Fritz and Sousa twice apiece and is yet to lose to either of them. The Swiss, however, has never locked horns with Mathias Bourgue or Dominik Koepfer.

Roger Federer's likely 4th round opponent - Matteo Berrettini

Roger Federer could face Matteo Berrettini in the Round of 16

Roger Federer could face his first real test in the Round of 16, against Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime or Italy's Matteo Berrettini. While Auger-Aliassime has struggled for results on clay this season, Berrettini has been in imposing form and would certainly pose a stern challenge.

Roger Federer's likely quarterfinal opponent - Novak Djokovic

Roger Federer's last Grand Slam opponent was Novak Djokovic

World No. 1 and 2016 champion Novak Djokovic potentially awaits Roger Federer in the last eight. Given the Serb's recent form and determination to lift the title in Paris, it is extremely unlikely we will see any name other than Djokovic in the quarterfinals.

However, the likes of David Goffin, Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur, and Ugo Humbert are also part of Djokovic's section and could test the Serb.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head against Federer 27-23 (11-6 in Grand Slam matches), but they've split their two French Open meetings.

Roger Federer's likely semifinal opponent - Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal

If the Swiss manages to survive Novak Djokovic, he will likely come up against 13-time champion Rafael Nadal in the semifinals.

The Spaniard has dominated their rivalry on clay, winning 14 of 16 matches, including a straight-sets victory in the semifinals of the 2019 edition.

🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal 🇨🇭 Roger Federer All in the same half 🤯 #RolandGarrospic.twitter.com/W8kPLboCdT

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 27, 2021

Roger Federer's likely opponent in the final - Dominic Thiem / Stefanos Tsitsipas / Alexander Zverev

In the unlikely event that Roger Federer manages to make it to the title round, he could meet one of Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev or Daniil Medvedev.

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Considering Roger Federer's recent struggles and lack of match practice, it doesn't seem likely that he will make a very deep run in Paris. Based on the section of the draw he has landed in, the Swiss should be able to progress to the fourth round. He will, however, have to play out of his skin if he is to make it any further.