Rome Masters men's preview: Potential Djokovic-Nadal semifinal highlights loaded draw

It’s a good time to be a fan of claycourt tennis right now. As one big clay tournament (Madrid) makes way for another (Rome), with the promise of Paris not far away, there are punishing rallies and sliding gets whichever direction you look. This year’s clay swing hasn’t been short of dramatic storylines either, with Rafael Nadal continuing his ascent, Roger Federer continuing his descent, and Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, well, staying in surprisingly the same place that they have been in all along. What should we expect heading into the last major Roland Garros tuneup, the extravagantly named Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome? Here’s a look at the men’s draw for the event:

First Quarter: Recovering from the hurt

Novak Djokovic has been nursing a sore ankle, but he is probably hurting even more from his 2nd round loss to Grigor Dimitrov in Madrid, which is not good news for the rest of the players in his quarter. Djokovic earned his clay stripes a long time ago, so it’s unwise to look at his early exit last week as a sign of surface-adjusting troubles. For a while now, it’s been a question of ‘when’ he will conquer Roland Garros rather than ‘if’ he will ever win the last Major missing from his résumé. What’s stopping him, then, from robbing Rafael Nadal of the ‘King of Clay’ title? For starters, there’s likely going to be Stanislas Wawrinka in the 3rd round here, the man who famously stretched the Serb to his absolute limit at this year’s Australian Open and who is contesting the Madrid semifinal as I write. If Djokovic gets past that threat, there’s probably going to be Wawrinka’s opponent today, Tomas Berdych, waiting in the wings. Djokovic has only ever lost once to Berdych in 14 matches, but they’ve met on clay just once, with the match going the distance. Much will depend on whether the World No. 1′s movement continues to be affected by his troublesome ankle.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Berdych

Dark horse: Kevin Anderson, who could meet Berdych in the 3rd round

Second Quarter: Umpteenth time unlucky

David Ferrer simply cannot catch a break. You might have thought he’d have been the biggest beneficiary of Rafael Nadal dropping out of the top 4 in the rankings, but so far Nadal’s injury-induced downslide has only worked against Ferrer. A week after his dispiriting failure to close out a much-needed win over his more famous countryman, having been two points from victory in the Madrid quarterfinal, Ferrer has been slotted in the same quarter as his nemesis yet again. They say you make your own luck, but none of Ferrer’s Herculean efforts have helped him manufacture any kind of luck this year.

Nadal, meanwhile, starts his campaign against the winner of the encounter between the flashy Fabio Fognini and the not-so-flashy Andreas Seppi. After that, he will likely have to play Janko Tipsarevic, who is, incredibly, still in the top 10 despite having spent much of the last two months wandering in the wilderness. A Nadal-Ferrer quarterfinal seems to have only one result written over it, at least on clay. But we might not even get that far, as Ferrer has more misfortune coming his way before that stage, in the form of Milos Raonic in the 3rd round.

Prediction: Nadal def. Ferrer

Dark horse: Fernando Verdasco, who could face Ferrer in the 2nd round

Third Quarter: The Centre of Intrigue

Andy Murray lost a seemingly winnable match against Berdych in the Madrid quarters, and his frustratingly tepid results on clay remain a constant source of intrigue. His counterpunching game seems, at first glance, ideally suited to slow surfaces, but his inability to master the claycourt slide keeps hurting him, as does his lack of a consistent point-ending forehand. Murray faces the always-dangerous Nikolay Davydenko first up, followed in all probability by Roger Federer’s Madrid conqueror, Kei Nishikori. Neither match is a gimme for the Scot, whose biggest test, though, will likely come in the quarters against either Nicolas Almagro or Juan Martin del Potro.

Del Potro is returning from a small injury break, and although the tall Argentine is comfortable playing on clay, he has never been a particularly strong contender when coming out of the cold. Almagro, on the other hand, continues to stand right behind the door of the much-vaunted ‘next level’, and his draw is as kind as any he could have hoped for in his attempt to make that big breakthrough.

Prediction: Almagro def. Murray

Dark horse: Nikolay Davydenko

Fourth Quarter: the Master and his baby

The ‘Baby Federer’ moniker seems to have stuck on Grigor Dimitrov for now, and that’s unfortunate for several reasons. For one thing, Dimitrov has a game replete with flair and finesse that deserves its own distinct identity in the minds of tennis followers – in his victory over Djokovic last week, the Bulgarian used both power and touch to thoroughly befuddle the World No. 1 for vast stretches of the match. For another, the nickname hasn’t exactly worked wonders for its recipients in the past (remember Richard Gasquet?). Still, the stylistic similarities in the games of Federer and Dimitrov should make a potential quarterfinal between the two a must-watch.

But there’s work to be done before we get there, some of which sounds incredibly difficult. Dimitrov starts against the eternally streaky Marcos Baghdatis, followed by a match against, you guessed it, the original clone – none other than Gasquet himself, after which he will likely have to stare down Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s missiles. Federer, on the other hand, will probably get Tommy Haas in the 3rd round after a seemingly innocuous opener (against the winner of Radek Stepanek and Potito Starace). Memory refresher: the last time Federer went up against Haas, he ended up on the losing side, and on his beloved grass to boot. So, as much as we’d like to see a match between the Master and his supposed heir, there seem to be too many things that are designed to prevent it.

Prediction: Federer def. Tsonga

Dark horse: Jerzy Janowicz, who will likely face Tsonga in the 2nd round

Semifinals

Semifinal 1: It’s been a while since we last saw Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal play each other before a final. Two and a half years, to be exact. To state the obvious, a lot has changed in that time. But not a lot has changed since Djokovic emphatically shattered Nadal’s stranglehold over Monte Carlo. The Serb came close to handing Nadal a bagel in what has to be seen as the Spaniard’s favourite tournament in the whole world, and has played only one match after that. Djokovic may not necessarily occupy a place in Nadal’s head right now, but he’s certainly staking a claim a find a place for himself in Nadal’s clay empire.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Nadal

Semifinal 2: As strange as this sounds, Federer is the only top 10 player this year to have failed to reach a single final. The Swiss is probably raring to correct that anomaly, and if he does get to a semifinal against Almagro (or even against Murray), my money would be on him.

Prediction: Federer def. Almagro

Final prediction: Djokovic def. Federer