2016 for Roger Federer has been mostly about injuries and withdrawals.
Having played only three tournaments this year, the Swiss Maestro rests his body more and takes a call on playing in a tournament after weighing all his options. Finals at the Brisbane Open, semi-finals at the Australian Open and quarter-finals at the Monte Carlo Masters are great results for this legend at the ripe old age of 34.
Federer’s zeal to explore the unchartered territories of his performance reserves and the will to squeeze every ounce of motivation has kept him going so far,but not without a couple of disappointments this season. His campaigns at Miami Masters in March and the ongoing Madrid Masters ended even before they began.
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Peace prevailed in the Federer camp when he arrived in Madrid, said Buenos Noches to Manola Santana and hit the practice courts soon after. The draws were announced and he was slated to meet his nemesis Rafael Nadal, who seems to have found his clay form, in the Quarter finals. On Saturday Federer encountered an old foe. The flare up in his back, that made 2013 a forgettable year, forced Federer to pull out of the Madrid Masters.
Pulling out of the Madrid Open does more good to Roger Federer at this point of time, and here’s why.
Avoiding the grind at Madrid
Federer’s draw in Madrid was a tough one.
In the third Round, he could have met Dominic Thiem or Juan Martin Del Potro.
Thiem has been making huge strides in the Emirates ATP Rankings this year.
Currently perched at No.14, the Austrian young gun won his first ATP 500 title this year and also took down the ‘King of Clay’ Rafael Nadal in the Semi Finals of the Argentina Open after saving a match point.
Clay is Thiem’s best surface and given his current form, he would have been a tough opponent for Federer to overcome. Del Potro return to the tour has also been pretty impressive.
Had Federer got past the Thiem or Del Potro, he would have hit a wall.
Rafael Nadal, the four time Champion at Madrid, who seems to have found his old self would have been almost impossible to get past for Federer. After 18 months of wallowing in confidence issues and poor form, Nadal won back to back titles on clay at Monte Carlo and Barcelona. His renewed zeal looks ominous and he would have been the favorite had the two legends locked horns in their much awaited 35th meeting.
Federer lost in the opening round of the Mutua Madrid Open last year to Nick Kyrgios. In a tight three sets, all of which were tie breaks, Federer squandered a few match points before finally throwing in the towel. With no points to defend from last year’s Madrid Open, he will not slide down the rankings as Stan Wawrinka, the closest player behind him, is a good 1100 ATP points behind.
Getting ready for Rome
The clay season is long and it spares no one.
Not even the super human and reigning No.1 Novak Djokovic is immune to fatigue. After yet another double delight at the March Masters Djokovic looked out of sorts and worn out at Monte Carlo. He was ousted by Jiri Vesely in the first round.
The draw for the other Big Three and Wawrinka is not easy at the Mutua Madrid Open 2016.
Djokovic could meet Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarter-finals. Though the Serb has won all their previous encounters on clay, the Frenchman, when at his explosive best, is not an easy opponent to tame. Their epic quarter-final clash at Roland Garros in 2012 is a testimony to the fact.
Nadal had a tricky second round opponent in Andrey Kuznetsov. Kuznetsov pushed Nadal to three sets at Doha this year and has been playing very well of late. Goffin waits in Round Three. The Belgian is another player who has climbed up the Rankings and relishes the prospect of playing on clay. He also managed to score his first win against the Top 10 in 2016.
The Spaniard has since defeated Kuznetsov in straight sets with relative ease, but will face the quickly-rising Goffin in the next round.
Murray, the defending champion in Madrid, will meet Gilles Simon in round three. Simon won their first ever clay encounter back in 2007 at the Rome Masters. The Scot, who got the better of Simon in their second meeting on clay, has a task cut out for him.
Both their clay face-offs have been grueling three-setters, and Murray can expect one more. Should Murray progress further, Tomas Berdych will meet him in the quarterfinals. Berdych won their last meeting on clay at Madrid in 2013.
Wawrinka faces Kyrgios in his second . Given their history and shot making, it will be a cracker of a match in all respects.
The Rome Masters follows soon after the Madrid Masters. With all the top players grinding it out this week, it will be a tough task for them to follow up with another string of good performances in the consecutive week. With Federer getting a week to nurse his back and improve his fitness, he has better chances of making it to the latter stages of the tournament than at Madrid. Federer has to defend 600 ATP points from last year’s berth in the Finale at Rome.
Can he add the elusive title at Rome? It is quite ambitious given his current state but not impossible if he gets a favorable draw. He also has better chances of getting three more match wins under his belt at Rome and surpassing Ivan Lendl at 1,071 wins.
Another shot at World No.2
Federer was just 120 ATP points behind Murray before the Monte Carlo Masters. Federer’s quarterfinal exit and Murray’s progress to the semis further widened the gap to a little less than 400 points.
Murray scored a sensational victory over Nadal last year to win his first ever Madrid Masters title. This year he could meet a rejuvenated Nadal in the Semi Final. A semi Final exit for Murray could mean losing the World No.2 to Roger Federer ahead of the grass season, just the kind of scenario Federer wants heading into his favorite part of the season.
Even if Murray bests Nadal to reach the Finals at Madrid, he will most probably meet Novak Djokovic who is well rested and raring to go at Madrid. Reaching the Madrid Final may help Murray keep his nose ahead in the Rankings table but it could be for the taking if he does not do well.
A long season ahead
Federer has a packed schedule for the second half of the year after Roland Garros.
While the elusive 18th Slam haunts him, Federer fancies his chances of adding it at Wimbledon, the hallowed portal where he has found the most success. In his quest for another Wimbledon Federer has added Stuttgart to his schedule in the run up to his arrival at SW19. With the Rio Olympics scheduled to start in August 2016, three days before his 35th birthday, Federer has to remain in top shape to play the Singles draw and the Mixed Double draw with Martina Hingis.
The Davis Cup remained elusive for a long time but Federer overcame a nagging back injury in less than a week to clinch his maiden Davis Cup title.
Can he do it again?
Can he win Rome? Can he win Wimbledon? Can he win Olympic Gold?
The road ahead in 2016 is not an easy one for Roger Federer. The elusive 18th Grand Slam and the Olympic Gold beckon this great player but his spate of injuries and age will be the biggest hurdles in his race against time.
As of now, pulling out of Madrid will do more good to him in the long run. It is yet another sensible move by the Swiss Maestro to bide his time, one of the many over the years that have kept him relevant and hungry.
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