Shanghai Rolex Masters: One tournament, many outcomes

Most tennis tournaments last a week, crown a winner on Sunday and the circus shifts venue the next week. The winner takes home some glitter and a large share of the pot; leaving the others with the crumbs. This week though even the crumbs are coveted prizes. As the penultimate Masters Series event gathers heat, it is one tournament that could leave a trail of winners in its wake.

Barely a few weeks away from the Barclays ATP World Tour Final, there are nearly ten men fighting over the remaining spots at the marquee season ending event in London. Andy Murray’s surgery is set to rule him out of the event, opening up a place for the chasing pack.

The big four have rarely needed to wait this late to determine their fate. But the six time champion Roger Federer suffered his poorest season in a decade to slip down to seventh in the race to London. After winning just a solitary title this year, Federer is still without an assured ticket to London.

Rafael Nadal is living at the opposite end of the spectrum – having enjoyed a remarkably successful season so far. Walking wounded and nowhere to be found a year ago, he has surged to the top of the rankings this week on the back of a season best 10 titles in 14 starts.

Nadal has put together easily one of the best comeback seasons in tennis history, soaring to the top of the pile adding a series of hard court successes to his regular collection on the clay. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic is still struggling to regain the form that helped him storm through to the top. But both men have done enough to seal their trip.

If Nadal manages to clinch his maiden title in Shanghai, he could surpass Djokovic’s haul of five Masters Series titles in a season and extend his record haul to 27 titles in the class. A victory would also help heal some of the pain from his first hard court loss of the season last week at Beijing.

For Djokovic, who only broke a lengthy drought last week, there are a ton of points to protect in the coming weeks. The Serbian is defending champion both in Shanghai and London. A victory in Shanghai could help further restore his flagging confidence in time for the defense of the title he won last year defeating Federer in the finals.

Federer is living in uncharted territory. Years of consistency meant that the Swiss was a lock for London, typically even before the season reached the second swing in North America. On current form though, he is left fending off compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka and Milos Raonic from shoving him off the table.

The curse of age has rendered Federer vulnerable and the hawks are happy to exploit the frailties of the regal Swiss. Federer is putting on a brave front, even talking up his chances for 2014. The only thing that can send a message though is if he can find a compelling ending to an otherwise drab passage in his career.

David Ferrer has already sealed his place for London, so he might be content with a few good matches under his belt on the road back to Europe from Asia. Juan Martin Del Potro has given himself a good boost by claiming the Rakuten Open in Japan and Tomas Berdych padded his fortune with a run to the last four in Beijing.

Rank	Race	Name	Ranking Points	Race Points
1	1	Rafael Nadal	11,160	11,310
2	2	Novak Djokovic	11,120	8,610
3	3	Andy Murray	6,895	5,805
4	4	David Ferrer	6,710	4,900
5	5	Juan Martin Del Potro	4,925	3,820
6	6	Tomas Berdych	4,610	3,710
7	7	Roger Federer	4,515	3,055
8	8	Stanislas Wawrinka	3,150	2,970
10	9	Richard Gasquet	3,095	2,950
11	10	Milos Raonic	2,815	2,680
9	11	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	3,115	2,650
12	12	Tommy Haas	2,355	2,175
13	13	John Isner	2,115	2,015

Points Breakdown – Masters Series
Winner	1,000
Final	600
Semifinals	360
Quarterfinals	180
Round of 16	90
Round of 32	45
Round of 64	10

Richard Gasquet, ninth in the race, shot himself in the foot with an unseemly loss against Vasek Pospisil in the first round of Shanghai. Now he will have to hope for a stellar showing in Paris to gain a scent of the trail again. John Isner might be down in 13^th in the race to London, but he is hardly out of it.

Isner made a spirited effort in the first round, to come back from the brink to keep his hopes alive for a ticket to the isles. The ageing Tommy Haas has shown the way for Federer this year, proving that time isn’t an insurmountable barrier to success. At 12^th, he could hardly be counted out especially with some indoor games around the corner to aid his cause.

Milos Raonic could nudge his way into the mix too. The finalist in Japan seems to have found the form needed to ride his ticket to the Tour finals. The Canadian served himself a favour by reaching the finals in Japan last week, but there is still some more work to be done to earn his stripes.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is living with an unwieldy left knee and a predicament. The Frenchman is ninth on the ATP rankings, but is only eleventh in the race to the finals. His quick exit from Tokyo underlined the fact that Tsonga hasn’t completely recovered from his injury and time is running out for him to make a bid for London.

With so much subtext to this week’s masters-series tournament, even the great multi-plot doyen Robert Altman might have struggled to outdo the many plots that enrich the Shanghai Rolex Masters. Buckle in and enjoy the action, the big boys are dressed up and ready to script a thrilling finish in the weeks ahead.