Stuttgart 2023 final: Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix

Match details

Fixture: (1) Iga Swiatek vs (2) Aryna Sabalenka

Date: April 23, 2023

Tournament: Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 2023

Round: Final

Venue: Stuttgart, Germany

Category: WTA 500

Surface: Indoor Clay

Prize money: $780,637

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka preview

Iga Swiatek at the 2023 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix.

Defending champion Iga Swiatek will square off against World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the 2023 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix on Sunday.

Following a first-round bye, Swiatek knocked out Qinwen Zheng in straight sets in the second round. She took on former champion Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinals, where she staged a comeback to oust the Czech in three sets. The World No. 1 then faced Ons Jabeur in the semifinals.

Swiatek held serve with ease to kick things off, after which she broke Jabeur's serve in the next game to go 2-0 up. She held serve comfortably in the subsequent game as well, but it was during this point that her opponent injured herself. The Tunisian was unable to continue and was forced to retire, sending the defending champion into the final once again.

Meanwhile, after an opening-round bye, Sabalenka defeated Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets to make the last eight. She then scored a comeback victory over Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals. The Belarusian faced Anastasia Potapova in the semifinals.

The first set was quite one-sided as Sabalenka dished out a breadstick to her opponent to clinch it. Potapova raised her level in the second set, but it simply wasn't enough. The Belarusian broke her opponent's serve twice to go 4-0 up and held on to the lead to win the match 6-1, 6-2.

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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka head-to-head

Swiatek leads Sabalenka 4-2 in the head-to-head. The latter won their previous encounter at the 2022 WTA Finals in three sets.

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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka odds

Player	Moneyline
Iga Swiatek	-250
Aryna Sabalenka	+200

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka prediction

Aryna Sabalenka at the 2023 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix.

Sabalenka's relentless hitting overwhelmed Potapova in the previous round. The Belarusian was superior in every aspect of the game. She won 76% of her first-serve points and lost just three points on serve in the second set. She erased all three break points that she faced, while constantly attacking her opponent's serve, winning 55% of points on return.

Jabeur's untimely injury in the semifinals meant Swiatek didn't have to do much to reach the title round. The Pole remained unbeaten during last year's clay season, and it all started here in Stuttgart. She defeated Sabalenka in straight sets in the final last year.

As for the Belarusian, she has reached the final here for the third year in a row. After losing four matches in a row to Swiatek last year, Sabalenka finally snapped her losing streak to defeat her younger opponent in their most recent encounter.

Swiatek's second serve puts her in a spot of bother at times. She also struggles against players who are capable of hitting her off the court, which includes Sabalenka. This new and improved version of the Belarusian has been a force to be reckoned with all year long so far.

However, Swiatek is easily the best clay court player on the women's tour at the moment. Considering Sabalenka's current form, she's likely to make things quite difficult, but the World No. 1 should be able to defend her title successfully on Sunday.

Pick: Iga Swiatek to win in three sets.