5 biggest obstacles to a Fedal showdown at US Open 2017

The main draw of US Open 2017 is officially underway and the one question that's been looming on everyone’s mind since the men’s draw came out is, will Federer and Nadal finally meet at the US Open?

There have been multiple occasions when the pair could have squared off at Flushing Meadows; the most recent and excruciatingly close instance was in 2013 when Federer lost his 4th round matchup to Rafa’s compatriot Tommy Robredo, in straight sets. Incidentally, that’s the Spaniard’s only victory against Federer in 12 matches played. Nadal crushed Robredo 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 in the next round, the quarter-finals, en route to his second US Open title.

The Federer-Nadal rivalry may not have been at its peak then, but here in 2017, that element of the rivalry is surely peaking and how! Three meetings (all on hard courts), and all going to Federer have brought about an interesting dynamic in this rejuvenated rivalry.

The first three Grand Slams of the year have been claimed by this duo, and so have 4 of the 7 ATP Masters 1000 tournaments played thus far. They lead the ATP Singles Race to London, and will end the US Open ranked as the top 2 players in the world. So, what is it that could stop us from witnessing the first Federer-Nadal matchup in the US Open?

Realistically, there are a few potential and probable antagonists in the newly rekindled love affair, and we evaluate the case for the 5 most likely of them!

#5 : Dominic Thiem (Federer’s potential opponent in the Quarter-Finals)

The heir-apparent to Rafa Nadal’s throne on the red dirt, Dominic Thiem is the kind of player who can give you all sorts of problems on his day.

The 6th seed at the US Open this year, Thiem himself has a difficult path to the quarter-finals, but if he gets there and so does Federer, we could see a matchup between two of the most contrasting single-handed backhands left in the game.

Federer’s backhand is all about flair and timing, and Thiem epitomises aggression and strength from the baseline.

Thiem has already beaten Djokovic (French Open) and Nadal (Rome) this year, albeit on clay courts, which is definitely his most dominant surface. The interesting sub-text on this potential matchup though is that Thiem leads the career head2head between the duo.

While the two have faced-off only 3 times, all in 2016, Thiem currently leads Federer 2-1. He is one of the only next generation stars who has beaten each member of the historically great Big 4, at least once.

He is currently third on the tour this year in terms of matches won (41), after Nadal (49) and Alexander Zverev (46) and sits 4th in the ATP Singles Race to London. He will need to better his previous best showing of a 4th Round finish at the US Open to set up a potential clash with Federer, but if that was to happen, Federer wouldn't be all too pleased!

#5 : Dominic Thiem (Federer’s potential opponent in the Quarter-Finals)

Thiem knows what it takes to beat the Big 4!

The heir-apparent to Rafa Nadal’s throne on the red dirt, Dominic Thiem is the kind of player who can give you all sorts of problems on his day.

The 6th seed at the US Open this year, Thiem himself has a difficult path to the quarter-finals, but if he gets there and so does Federer, we could see a matchup between two of the most contrasting single-handed backhands left in the game.

Federer’s backhand is all about flair and timing, and Thiem epitomises aggression and strength from the baseline.

Thiem has already beaten Djokovic (French Open) and Nadal (Rome) this year, albeit on clay courts, which is definitely his most dominant surface. The interesting sub-text on this potential matchup though is that Thiem leads the career head2head between the duo.

While the two have faced-off only 3 times, all in 2016, Thiem currently leads Federer 2-1. He is one of the only next generation stars who has beaten each member of the historically great Big 4, at least once.

He is currently third on the tour this year in terms of matches won (41), after Nadal (49) and Alexander Zverev (46) and sits 4th in the ATP Singles Race to London. He will need to better his previous best showing of a 4th Round finish at the US Open to set up a potential clash with Federer, but if that was to happen, Federer wouldn't be all too pleased!

#4 : Juan Martin del Potro (Federer’s potential opponent in the Quarter-Finals)

Juan Martin del Potro - the 2009 US Open Champion

This one is a fringe possibility if you ask tennis pundits, given the rocky run in to the US Open that del Potro has had. Humbled by Canadian teenage sensation Shopavalov, and eventual Champion Dimitrov in Montreal and Cincinnati respectively, del Potro has looked far from his intimating self of yesteryear in the last few years.

Battling injuries throughout the course of his career, the 28-year old has shown glimpses of his big-hitting younger years, but none too convincing over more gruelling best-of-five set matches. That being said though, if there is someone in Federer’s quarter of the draw who knows a thing or two, or five, about beating Federer, it is this man.

His career head-to-head against Federer stands at 5-16, but none of his 5 conquests would be more memorable than his come from behind victory against Federer at the 2009 US Open Final. It halted the then 5-time defending Champion, and Federer hasn't won the US Open since.

Del Potro is the only Grand Slam winner not named Nadal or Federer in the top half of the draw. He may very well not make it to the quarter-finals, but if he does, and so does Federer, expect big things from the 6 foot 6 Argentine!

#3 : Fabio Fognini (Nadal’s potential opponent in the 4th Round)

Fabio Fognini - Nadal's conquerer at the 2015 US Open

The man who wears a Skull on his headband, Fabio Fognini is one of the most unpredictable players on the tour. The temperamental Italian can go awfully cold for long periods of time, and can turn the heat up in a matter of a few shots.

Standing at 5 foot 10, the right-hander is one of the only not-so household names who has beaten Rafa Nadal on multiple occasions in the same season. His career head-to-head against Rafa stands at 3-9, but all three of his victories came in the same season, 2 years back, in 2015.

He displayed all his best qualities and shotmaking against Nadal, at the very same tournament, a round earlier (3rd Round), in 2015.

Nadal uncharacteristically blew a two sets to love lead against Fognini at Flushing Meadows (he was 151-0 in Grand Slam matches that he led two sets to love at that point in his career), losing his third match out of four to the Italian at that point in the season (he later beat him on the hard courts in Beijing).

As glorious as Fabio can be on his day, consistency has always been an issue for him. He has not progressed beyond the 4th Round of the US Open, and will need to match his best showing to only set up a potential meeting with Nadal.

Despite being in the same octet of the draw as Berdych, Fognini probably has a better chance of upsetting Nadal than Tomas Berdych, who has beaten Nadal only once since the beginning of 2007, in 19 tries.

#2 : Nick Kyrgios (Federer’s potential opponent in the 4th Round)

The ever so entertaining Nick Kyrgios at the Western & Southern Open

This potential match-up has awesomeness written all over it. While the 22-year old has faced the 36-year old only twice in his career (Kyrgios withdrew from the tournament before their slated tilt in the quarter-finals at Indian Wells earlier this year), we know he can give the Swiss maestro a lot of trouble.

The duo, in their 2 three-set face-offs, have produced 6 sets of mind-blowing tennis. This is how even the rivalry is: 2 matches, one-win each; 6 sets, 3-sets each; and the most incredible part, all their sets have gone to tie-breaks. You’re essentially looking at score-lines of 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 (for Kyrgios) and 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 for Federer.

This potential match-up could well be the change of guard in men’s tennis. What Roger Federer did in 2001 against Pete Sampras at Wimbledon, could well be on the cards here. Kyrgios has the game to upset Federer, but does he possess the temperament?

That will be the underlying storyline if the duo were to meet, but let’s not forget, a certain very temperamental Marat Safin once (in)famously broke down the machine-like calmness of Roger Federer at the Australian Open in 2005. A blockbuster showdown could well be on the cards here!

#1 : Grigor Dimitrov (Nadal’s potential opponent in the Quarter-Finals)

Can Dimitrov continue his hot streak at the US Open?With his recent exploits in Cincinnati, has Grigor Dimitrov - long-been labelled “Baby Fed”, finally come of age? Dimitrov has been leading the charge of the young brigade for so long, that at 26, he does not feel young anymore. He has beaten Nadal once, in 9 meetings, on the hard courts of Beijing in 2016, but stretched Nadal to the hilt in their most recent outing together, at the Semi-Final stage at Melbourne Park.

Nadal eventually prevailed in 5 gruelling sets, to set up a final showdown with Federer, eventually losing himself in 5-sets to lose the Australian Open Final for the third time in his career. Dimitrov will take a lot of heart from that meeting though. He has already won three titles this season, and could be the biggest potential roadblock that prevents yet another Federer-Nadal meeting in the Big Apple.