The Italian Open curse affecting non-Nadal & Djokovic champions: Will Alexander Zverev fall as the next victim at French Open 2024?

Alexander Zverev won his sixth Masters 1000 title by beating Nicolas Jarry of Chile 6-4, 7-5 in the Italian Open final last Sunday, May 19. The 27-year-old German served really well to overcome the Chilean on the day. It was a big triumph for Zverev after he had to endure a tough couple of years following an ankle injury.

However, if one goes by recent history, it does not augur well for his prospects at the French Open, which starts in a week's time.

Italian Open winners barring Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have not done well at Roland Garros in recent past:

Nadal and Djokovic shared five Italian Open titles between them from 2018 to 2022. Both of them have enjoyed excellent records on the clay of Rome, having won 10 and six titles there, respectively.

Daniil Medvedev broke the recent stranglehold of Nadal and Djokovic on the tournament by winning the title in 2023, but was done in by Thiago Seyboth-Wild in a thrilling five-setters in the first round of Roland Garros. Prior to that, Zverev himself won the Italian Open title back in 2017, but then went on to lose to Fernando Verdasco of Spain in the first round of the French Open itself.

Thus, the last two Italian Open winners not named Nadal or Djokovic succumbed early at the subsequent French Open.

Alexander Zverev should be able to break the jinx:

However, Zverev will be buoyed by his win and should not be bogged down by the recent history despite the fact that he was a part of it himself. The German’s forehand is a much-improved shot these days. If he keeps hitting his first serve as powerfully as he did against Jarry, he should not find it very difficult to make a deep run at the French Open.

In fact, with the prowess of both Nadal and Djokovic seemingly being on the wane and Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev not being very comfortable playing on clay, Zverev should be among the favorites alongside Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune to win the title at Roland Garros.

However, Zverev's record in the best-of-five format is not very good against top players. That is a concerning thing for him and he should try to improve his record in that regard. However, winning the first three or four matches in Paris should not be much of an issue for him. Hence, we can safely assume that history is very unlikely to repeat itself at the French Open as far as the German is concerned.