Tommy Paul vs Kei Nishikori preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Australian Open 2025

Match Details

Fixture: (12) Tommy Paul vs (PR) Kei Nishikori

Date: January 15, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (outdoor)

Prize Money: A$96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, ESPN | UK - Eurosport | Canada - TSN, RDS

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Tommy Paul vs Kei Nishikori preview

Tommy Paul at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

12th seed Tommy Paul will face former US Open runner-up Kei Nishikori in the second round of the Australian Open 2025.

Paul took on home favorite Christopher O'Connell in the first round here. The American was off to a flying start as he broke his opponent's serve in the very first game of the match. He then went on a three-game run towards the end to claim the opening set.

O'Connell leapt to a 3-0 lead in the second set and didn't let go of his headstart. He faced a couple of break points while serving for the set but fended them off to level the proceedings. Paul struck back decisively to take the third set, in which he conceded only one game.

The finish line was well within sight for Paul, who led 4-2 in the fourth set. However, he got broken when serving for the match, and then lost the set in the tie-break, despite being 4-1 up in it. The two went toe-to-toe in the fifth set, and the American snagged a break of serve in the 12th game to score a 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (5), 7-5 win.

Nishikori's first-round opponent was qualifier Thiago Monteiro. The latter ran circles around the former and took a two-set lead in a highly entertaining display of shotmaking from both players.

Monteiro was on the cusp of victory and held two match points on Nishikori's serve at 5-4 in the third set. The Japanese bravely fought those off and then bagged the next couple of games as well to capture the set.

Nishikori was energized after this twist in the tale, while Monteiro appeared to be deflated after missing out on those match points. The Japanese rode this wave of momentum to complete a 4-6, 6-7 (4), 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 comeback win.

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Tommy Paul vs Kei Nishikori head-to-head

Nishikori leads Paul 1-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the Citi Open 2017 in three sets.

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Tommy Paul vs Kei Nishikori odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	-250	+1.5 (-550)	Over 36.5 (-130)
Kei Nishikori	+190	-1.5 (+300)	Under 36.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Tommy Paul vs Kei Nishikori prediction

Kei Nishikori at the Australian Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Both players needed to dig deep to win their first-round bouts. Paul was a few points away from winning when he got dragged into a fifth set. Nevertheless, he regained his composure to down a surging O'Connell. He won 80 percent of his first serve points and blasted 66 winners in contrast to 62 unforced errors.

Nishikori snatched victory from the jaws of defeat to make a winning return to Melbourne after a gap of four years. His incredible turnaround was thanks to the 67 winners that he struck against 42 unforced errors. He also improved his record in five-set matches to 29-8 with the win.

Paul and Nishikori crossed paths way back in 2017, when the American was just starting out on the tour. He nabbed the first set but couldn't sustain the momentum, and lost the match.

However, a lot has happened since then. Nishikori's career came to a halt over the last few years due to numerous injury setbacks, while Paul has flourished and become a top player. The American should be able to do what he couldn't in their first career meeting and come out on top this time.

Pick: Tommy Paul to win in four sets.