Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick | Australian Open 2025

Match Details

Fixture: (12) Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Date: January 17, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Prize Money: A$96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN & Tennis Channel | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Sports & Sony LIV

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Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena preview

Tommy Paul at the 2025 Australian Open - Day 4 - Source: Getty

World No. 11 Tommy Paul will face Spain's Roberto Carballes Baena in the third round of the 2025 Australian Open on Friday, 17 January.

27-year-old Paul needed more than four hours to get past Australia's Christopher O'Connell in a five-set thriller in the first round. He dropped the first set in a tie-break against Kei Nishikori in the second round but made a strong comeback to win the next three sets comfortably. Seeded 12th at the Major, Tommy Paul started his season in Adelaide, where he was stunned in the semifinal by Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Meanwhile, Roberto Carballes Baena knocked out the 23rd seed Alejandro Tabilo 1-6, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6(1) in the first round and defeated Australia's James Duckworth 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 in the following round.

The Spaniard started his season in Hong Kong, where he lost to Canada's Gabriel Diallo in the first round. Carballes Baena then reached the quarterfinal in Auckland before losing to Belgium's Zizou Bergs in three sets.

Roberto Carballes Baena at the 2025 Australian Open - Day 2 - Source: Getty

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Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena head-to-head

Roberto Carballes Baena leads their head-to-head 1-0, having defeated the American 7-6(2), 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 at the 2021 US Open.

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Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total games
Tommy Paul	TBD	TBD	TBD
Roberto Carballes Baena	TBD	TBD	TBD

(Odds will be added when available)

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Tommy Paul vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction

Tommy Paul, who is guaranteed to reach his new career-high ranking of No. 9 on 27 January (when the rankings will be released), was stunned in the third round at Melbourne Park last year, by Miomir Kecmanovic.

At the 2024 Australian Open, Paul had two match points in the fourth set against Kecmanovic but was unable to finish the match and ultimately lost the fifth set. The American will be hoping for a different result this time around.

Tommy Paul has reached the last 16 of the Australian Open only once in his previous five appearances (when he lost to the eventual champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinal in 2023). With his potential third-round opponent Casper Ruud defeated by Jakub Mensik in the second round, Tommy Paul will be hoping to improve on his record at the Australian Major.

Meanwhile, Carballes Baena has had his best result at the Australian Open already this year, as he had won only one match in his previous five appearances here. The Spaniard has never reached the fourth round of any Grand Slam in his 24 appearances and will be looking to achieve the career milestone against the American.

However, Tommy Paul is expected to get past Baena's challenge comfortably, considering the former's superior experience at Grand Slams.

Pick: Paul to win in straight sets