US Open 2010: Expect Nadal-Djokovic Finale to be a Thriller

Nadal and Djokovic will play for the Championship match at the US Open

As soon as Roger Federer’s final backhand went long, the Serb put his hands up in the air in jubilation—almost disbelief, then folded his hands and looked towards the almighty. Given that he has routinely looked to the skies to ask for divine intervention when things do not go his way—despite him giving his 100 percent—one would believe that he was thanking the almighty for finally helping him to break the losing streak against Federer.

I believe the story is a little different. Novak did not thank the divine for his win—he earned it himself by displaying a stubbornness to not lose this time around, even when he was a set down on two occasions (Federer is one of the best front runners in the history of the game), and more so when he was two match points down. He refused to lose today, and it was this belief—which was absent most of the times when he faced the Swiss—that helped him today than the ones present in the sky. Novak was actually thinking ahead of the final and asked the powers-that-be to wet the Arthur Ashe stadium on Sunday and give him that extra day of much needed rest to have a fair chance against Rafael Nadal.

Till now, Rafa’s run at NYC has looked similar to Federer’s run at Roland Garros last year. A difficult draw for Rafa opened up in the same way as it did for Federer last year. Now that Rafa is in his first US Open final, destiny wants one final test from Rafa to see if he really deserves to be the youngest player to achieve the career slam—by making him play against a well rested, fully recharged, confident and battle-ready Djokovic.

The task is tough for him. Nadal’s game matches perfectly for Djokovic in these super fast courts; in fact, all seven of the Serb’s victories against Nadal have come on hard courts, and he is two on two when they have met on the North American Deco Turf. The Djoker hits through the court with great penetration, and Nadal’s strongest shot—his cross court forehand—plays directly into Djokovic’s strength—his backhand. And Djokovic’s strength—the backhand down the line—plays into Nadal’s weakness—his backhand. These factors do not affect Nadal much on clay, where he can just keep the ball in play with his backhand, but once the ball zips fast and low, he is usually found struggling. And Djokovic should take advantage of this, the same way he played the match points against Federer, “I just closed my eyes, hit the forehands and hoped they go in.”

What impressed me most on Saturday, apart from Djokovic’s willpower, was Djokovic’s forehand, and the return of serve. It is now that we can finally say that Djoker’s forehand is no longer a liability, and the way he read Federer’s deliveries—even the first ones—was breath taking. In the fourth set, Federer served at 62 percent and yet lost it 6-2! When have we last seen this from the Maestro? Moreover, by battling through five tough sets and almost four hours, Djokovic has sent a strong message to Nadal, “I am no longer the sissy who would retire once the conditions get a little heated. I am here to stay and rally with you all day.” Remember that yesterday Federer was at his defensive best, especially in the fifth. While he is next only to Nadal on this front, I have never seen him fetch so many balls far behind the baseline for such long period of time.

Nadal knows all this, and he must be devising his own strategies ahead of the finale. He would probably not use the fast flat serves that he has used so effectively in the Open after looking at the way Djokovic read Federer’s first serve, considering that Federer has much more variety on the flatter serve than him. He would probably revert back to his vicious spinning serves—always difficult for a righty—and if he gets it right, it would trouble Djokovic especially if he stands close to the baseline like he did against Federer, and would push him back. This is what Rafa would wants because once Djokovic takes control of the rally, Rafa will run for his life at Ashe.

Technicalities aside, the factor most in favor of Djokovic would be the battle readiness. Nadal has not yet faced a quality opponent in the tournament who could really test him. Djokovic has already gone through the greatest player of all times. It might come in handy if he falls behind in the match, because he knows he has come back from behind just two days back.

All said and done, both are playing at their best, both are at their confident best, and with an extra day of rest, both will come into the final with a near equal energy level. Nadal has much more experience in a major final, but as Djokovic said, “I am more experienced at the US Open final.” And with lots at stake—Nadal’s career slam, and Djokovic’s shredding of the one-slam wonder tag—both want it equally bad. Even if Djokovic has denied the world of another Federer-Nadal final, the conditions look perfect for a great final match at the Arthur Ashe stadium, much needed after the one sided affair in the women’s side. And if this match would even be half as interesting as their slugfests on the clay courts, we are in for a thriller.