US Open 2013: Whipping up some numbers with the women

Serena Williams in action vs Victoria Azarenka during the US Open Women’s Final

Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted, said the sagely Albert Einstein. He surely did not have sport in mind when he said that, but the great man’s thought is just as insightful an observation on sport as it might be for science.

In the second set of the final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka, the 32 year old American was two games away from victory leading 4-1. Surprisingly the woman with the biggest serve in tennis failed to serve out for the championship, not once but two times – at 5-4 and 6-5.

The Belarusian gave expression to her intense desire for the title by mounting a stirring fight back to win five of seven games before snatching the tie-break to force the match into the third set. It is difficult to explain the resurgence of Azarenka just in numbers, but it is educating to note the statistics related to her returns and the plays at the net.

During that phase Azarenka won 7 of 8 forays to the net and also managed to win nine points off the Serena first serve and an equal number off the second serve. It was some of the best results Azarenka had during a valiant two hour 45 minute effort.

And while it was her spirit that helped her raise her level of play, the numbers do tell you a story – Azarenka managed to play a more attacking game – stepping inside to take the ball early, improving her returns well enough to give her an opportunity to plant her feet at the net and finish points.

But Serena soon found her range again to push her opponent back and wipe the court with her opponent to take the title. In this feature, we examine some key statistics from the US Open and narrate the story of the tournament through the medium of numbers.

Sometimes, especially with women, aces do take you places – Three of the four semi-finalists figure in the top 5 in terms of number of aces delivered during the fortnight. Of course the numbers are far lighter, compared to the men, but those 34 aces from Serena did weigh heavy on her vanquished opponents. So too with the Chinese star Li Na, who powered her way into the last four with 29 aces. Flavia Pennetta served only 16 aces in six matches, but that was enough to help the Italian round off the top five in the table.

Bring in the first serve and make it count – You are right to think that the women break serve with monotonous regularity. More than a third of all games played result in a broken serve, making it immensely important for players to ensure a point when they make the first serve. On average, the women bring 60% of their first serves into play.

Once again, Serena stands out with an impressive level of consistency on this count. The world No.1 won 44 of her 58 first serve points in the finals against Azarenka. In fact, the American was steady through the fortnight translating 79% of first serve points in her favour. Once again, underlining their skill with the serve, it was Pennetta (72%) and Li Na (70%) who were the only other women among the last eight to have kept it above 70.

Roberta Vinci and Ekaterina Makarova were nearly there managing 69% and 68% respectively, but Azarenka had to content herself with a 63% winning rate off her first serve points.

Li Na in action vs Serena Williams during the US Open Women’s Semifinals

Needless to say, it is important to break and break often – Azarenka was the most prolific of all the ladies on this count. The world No.2 broke the opponent’s serve a whopping 45 times, well over six per match as she worked her way into the finals. The Belarusian was also guilty of playing the most number of sets during the fortnight – 17 in all.

Serena was not too far behind, winning the games that really mattered in the end. The American won 37 breaks and keeping her company was Pennetta, who broke her opponents 33 times. Naturally, it was the other semi-finalist who occupied the fourth spot earning 28 breaks. Daniela Hantuchova completed the top 5, just two games short of the Chinese woman.

A positive differential can help ease your path – There is always a thin line that separates the winners from errors, barring of course the ugly shanks that rear their head every now and then. The women struck 847 winners in the tournament while bleeding 875 errors, translating to a negative differential of 28.

Li Na had the highest number of winners with 152 and was amongst an elite group of three women who enjoyed a positive differential and a healthy result. It was Serena again who shone the brightest – striking 148 winners to only 114 unforced errors, a net difference of 34. Na had 129 errors to remain in the green by 23 points.

Pennetta was the last of the three women – scoring a net result of 18 (116-98) as she forced her way into the last four for the first time in her career. Surprisingly, Azarenka was the biggest culprit among the women who reached the last eight or better. The world No. 2 made 164 unforced errors to only 124 winners, resulting in a net negative of 40. This is a number that probably best explains why she needed to play all those 17 sets.

Women are clear winners – If you excuse Azarenka for straining too much, many of the women’s matches are settled rather amicably compared to the men. Less than a quarter of all matches reached the third set among women, whilst nearly 52% of men’s matches lasted more than the regulation three sets. In fact nearly 20% of the men’s matches went the full distance of five sets.

You will remember that Serena was only stretched in the final, her double bagel in the quarterfinals underlining her dominant run in the tournament. Only once did she need to live through a tie-break and that was against Azarenka in the finals. In fact, the women needed just 22 breakers over the course of deciding 127 matches. In contrast, the men played 73 tie-breakers during the tournament.

More to the point, the women played a combined total of 16,959 points during the fortnight earning more than a $1000 for every point played. Of course, do remember that the players took progressively more money as they went deeper in the tournament. In contrast the men played a total of 28,613 points – meaning that they earned a more frugal $599 for every laboured point.

Some food for thought and may be even reason for a little recalibration. Isn’t it fair that we offer equal pay for the players that fill the stands and sweat a little more?

Numbers sure do not tell you the entire story and may not even help explain the most important dynamic defining the result of contest. But on the evidence in hand, they surely do not lie.