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The 2021 US Open will see a return to normalcy of some sort, as crowds will be allowed this year after the pandemic-induced barrenness of 2020. But there is something decidedly not normal about the New York Slam this time; there will be no Serena Williams or Venus Williams in the women's draw, signaling the end of an era.
Fortunately, the new leaders of the women's tour are all accounted for. World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty leads the field on the back of a truly dominant season, while defending champion Naomi Osaka would be looking to pull one back at her favorite hunting ground. The likes of Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Bianca Andreescu and Belinda Bencic are also in with more than a shout.
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The good news from the draw is that the two best players of the last two years, Barty and Osaka, have been drawn in opposite halves, so they can't meet before the final. But the bad news is that only one of those two players is coming in with any sort of form, so that much awaited showdown may not even happen.
But what of the other players? Without further ado, here's how the women's singles draw at the 2021 US Open can be expected to pan out:
1st quarter: Ashleigh Barty hoping to put the icing on the cake that is her 2021 season
Top seeds: [1] Ashleigh Barty, [7] Iga Swiatek, [11] Belinda Bencic, [13] Jennifer Brady
Expected quarterfinal: Ashleigh Barty vs Iga Swiatek
Ashleigh Barty has won five titles this year across three different surfaces, and currently has a lead of more than 3,000 points over the second-ranked player. The Aussie started the year amid a cloud of uncertainty about her form and match fitness, but it is safe to say she has absolutely nothing left to prove now.
Will that make her more relaxed than usual at the US Open, and therefore even more dangerous? We'll know soon enough; after an innocuous opener against Vera Zvonareva, Barty might have to face rising teenager Clara Tauson in the second round. The World No. 1 has shown a certain vulnerability in the early rounds of tournaments lately, and the big-hitting Tauson is exactly the kind of player who can take advantage of that.
Another big hitter could lie in wait after that, in the form of Shelby Rogers, Sorana Cirstea or Veronika Kudermetova. The fourth round could be where things get really tricky; Barty could face either her Australian Open conqueror Karolina Muchova, or the woman who has reached at least the semis of the last two hardcourt Slams - Jennifer Brady.
That said, Muchova plays the nightmarishly consistent Sara Sorribes Tormo in the first round, and possibly Hsieh Su-wei in the second. It wouldn't be a surprise if either of those two players manages to beat the Czech.
At the other end of this quarter is Iga Swiatek, who starts against a qualifier and could meet Cincinnati runner-up Jil Teichmann in the Round of 32. A potential fourth-rounder against Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic or surging American Jessica Pegula wouldn't be easy either, especially since Swiatek is coming in with very little match practice.
Dark horse: Jil Teichmann
First-round match to watch: Karolina Muchova vs Sara Sorribes Tormo
Predicted quarterfinal result: Ashleigh Barty def. Belinda Bencic
2nd quarter: Bianca Andreescu looking to rediscover her lost glory even as Karolina Pliskova and Petra Kvitova battle for some spoils
Top seeds: [4] Karolina Pliskova, [6] Bianca Andreescu, [10] Petra Kvitova, [14] Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Expected quarterfinal: Karolina Pliskova vs Bianca Andreescu
The last time Bianca Andreescu played the US Open, she won the whole thing. But suffice to say plenty has happened since then, not least a slew of serious injuries and a crippling worldwide pandemic.
Andreescu seems to have lost her aura of stop-start invincibility even when fully fit though. Back in 2019 she would randomly play a tournament after skipping half a dozen, and beat everyone in her path. Now she is randomly playing a tournament after skipping half a dozen, and losing to everyone.
Can the Canadian rediscover her winning formula in New York? She won't get much time to ease herself in. Andreescu starts against Olympic quarterfinalist Viktorija Golubic and could play Berlin champion Ludmila Samsonova or former Roland Garros winner Jelena Ostapenko in the third round.
Maria Sakkari and Petra Kvitova, meanwhile, are slated to meet in a blockbuster third-rounder of their own, with the winner likely facing Andreescu. But Sakkari has a couple of tough obstacles early on, in the form of talented teenager Marta Kostyuk in the first round and either Katerina Siniakova or Anastasija Sevastova in the second.
Leading the opposite side of this quarter is Wimbledon runner-up and former US Open runner-up Karolina Pliskova. The Czech has a manageable first-round match against American teen Catherine McNally, but could face a more accomplished American teen - Amanda Anisimova - in the second.
A battle against Petra Martic could await in the third round for Pliskova, followed by a fourth-round meeting with possibly one of Paula Badosa or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Either of those players would be a tough nut to crack; Badosa has been in a purple patch since April, while Pavlyuchenkova reached the Roland Garros final in June and also won an Olympic gold in mixed doubles last month.
Dark horse: Amanda Anisimova
First-round match to watch: Anastasija Sevastova vs Katerina Siniakova
Predicted quarterfinal result: Karolina Pliskova def. Maria Sakkari
3rd quarter: Naomi Osaka returns amid a cloud of uncertainty
Top seeds: [3] Naomi Osaka, [5] Elina Svitolina, [12] Simona Halep, [16] Angelique Kerber
Expected quarterfinal: Naomi Osaka vs Elina Svitolina
Given all the mental upheavals Naomi Osaka has faced over the last few months, you'd be tempted to ask where her head is at as she enters the tournament for the defense of her 2020 title. But a more pertinent question to ask right now is: where's her game at?
Osaka looked like her old self while talking to reporters at the Tokyo Olympics and the Western & Southern Open, barring one episode of miscommunication. But on the court, she didn't quite look like the world-beating champion of a year ago. The Japanese coughed up a rash of unforced errors against Marketa Vondrousova in Tokyo and Jil Teichmann in Cincinnati to exit both tournaments at the third-round stage.
We know that Osaka usually reserves her best for the Slams, and we also know that she has never lost at a Slam once she has reached the quarterfinal stage. So if the 23-year-old does get past the Round of 16 here, we can throw all our predictions out of the window.
However, it is unclear whether Osaka has had enough time to fine-tune her game before arriving in New York. Her draw has done her no favors either; the Japanese starts against the tricky Marie Bouzkova, and she could face her one-time nemesis Yulia Putintseva in the Round of 32.
A potential fourth-rounder against either Angelique Kerber or Coco Gauff would make for popcorn stuff, but both of those players have their own tough obstacles to deal with. Gauff opens against Magda Linette and could face either Madison Keys (former US Open runner-up) or Sloane Stephens (former US Open champion) in the second round.
Kerber, meanwhile, plays the talented but erratic Dayana Yastremska right off the bat. And a match involving Yastremska is never easy to predict.
At the other end of this section, Elina Svitolina could play Ana Bogdan in the second round if she gets past the qualifier in the first. Daria Kasatkina is a possible third-round opponent, but the matchup in the next round is what would grab all the eyeballs: a potential showdown against Elena Rybakina or Simona Halep.
Halep is returning from yet another injury break but she can never be counted out in a big event. Rybakina, on the other hand, recently reached the Tokyo Olympics semifinals and would be keen to make a mark in New York.
A Halep vs Rybakina third-round clash would be a mouth-watering prospect, there's no doubt about that. But there's also the small matter of Halep's first-round opponent, who's no walkover: Montreal champion Camila Giorgi.
Dark horse: Camila Giorgi
First-round match to watch: Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens
Predicted quarterfinal result: Coco Gauff def. Elina Svitolina
4th quarter: Aryna Sabalenka, Barbora Krejcikova find themselves in the quarter of death
Top seeds: [2] Aryna Sabalenka, [8] Barbora Krejcikova, [9] Garbine Muguruza, [15] Elise Mertens
Expected quarterfinal: Aryba Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova
Aryna Sabalenka is the World No. 2 despite having never reached a Slam final, and she would be itching to correct that record at Flushing Meadows. The problem, however, is that she's been thrown into the most packed section of the draw.
There are landmines at pretty much every step of the way here - not just for Sabalenka, but for the other players too.
Sabalenka begins against Nina Stojanovic and could face Roland Garros semifinalist Tamara Zidansek in the second round followed by Danielle Collins in the third.
Collins, as you've probably heard, has been on an absolute tear the last few months. The American won two tournaments in succession at the start of the American hardcourt swing, and has looked like a real world-beater in every match she's played.
If Sabalenka gets past Collins, she could run into Ons Jabeur or Elise Mertens in the Round of 16. While Mertens has been on a bit of an underwhelming run lately, she's always a tough out. And Jabeur is, like another player in this section, in the middle of a breakthrough season.
That other player is Barbora Krejcikova, who leads the opposite half of this quarter. The Roland Garros champion starts against a qualifier but could face Christina McHale in the second, followed by a potential showdown against Ekaterina Alexandrova or Johanna Konta in the third.
Another spicy third-round encounter in this quarter could be the one between fellow two-time Slam champions Victoria Azarenka and Garbine Muguruza, with the winner likely facing Krejcikova in the fourth. It's a tough draw for both Azarenka and Muguruza, but the fans wouldn't complain at getting such a high-profile match as early as the Round of 32.
Dark horse: Ons Jabeur
First-round match to watch: Garbine Muguruza vs Donna Vekic
Predicted quarterfinal result: Aryna Sabalenka def. Barbora Krejcikova
Semifinal predictions
Ashleigh Barty def. Karolina Pliskova, Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff
Prediction for the final
Aryna Sabalenka def. Ashleigh Barty
