US Open men's preview: Let the Glamour Games begin

For all of the recent complaints about the tennis schedule, there’s something to be said about the symmetrical, even poetic arrangement of the four Majors in the calendar. The year starts with the warmth of the Australian Open, moves on to the struggle and toil of the French Open, reaches its definitive battleground of class and supremacy at Wimbledon and culminates in a whirlwind of glitz and glamour at the US Open. And if tennis followers can never tire of Wimbledon’s unwavering traditions, the glitz and glamour of New York can never get old either.

New York is the one place where the players can showcase their finest tennis skills in front of the largest possible live audience, and it’s also the place where the players can showcase themselves – nowhere else do tennis stars get as much attention as they do here. The US Open comes closer to being a ‘show’ than any other event in the sport. And like all things American, everything is big here – enormous stadiums, huge crowds, extensive media coverage, a large smattering of celebrities in attendance, and for a few select players, gigantic prize money too. Clearly, at the US Open, size does matter.

With the withdrawal of 2010 champion Rafael Nadal, though, the men’s draw this year looks strangely diminished. The Big 4 of the Golden Era of men’s tennis have spoiled us – nothing seems appropriately competitive unless we see all the four of them fighting it out, does it? But maybe such dispiriting thoughts might vanish from our minds once we get into the thick of things at the Open. And there’s no better way to start doing that than to get down to parsing the draw.

First Quarter: The Re-awakened and the Listless

After winning the most Grand Slams in history, being No. 1 in the world for the second-longest time in history, and winning pretty much everything that there is to win in the sport, are you even allowed to have a career resurgence? That’s probably what the rest of the players on the ATP tour have been glumly thinking about the last couple of months, as Roger Federer has made yet another career resurgence, establishing himself as the Alpha Dog in men’s tennis once again. He’s won 2 of the last 4 biggest events in tennis, returned to the No. 1 position in the rankings, and just like the days of yore, he’s looking like the universal favorite going into the last Slam of the year. And to make things even rosier for him, his nemesis is not playing the tournament. Federer’s dismantling of Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati final last week must be specially disconcerting for his rivals, and with his hunger for winning big titles showing no signs of abating, it’ll take a brave man to bet against Federer.

But we’ve been here before, and have seen things turn sour for Federer when no one expected them to. In 2009, Federer was coming off a similar career resurgence and a confidence-restoring Wimbledon victory, only to be derailed by the human tank going by the name of Juan Martin Del Potro in the final. Are there any players in Federer’s quarter who can stop him in his tracks this time? Not from where I’m looking. Federer starts off with the unfortunate Donald Young, who is coming off a 17-match losing streak which was snapped when he won a match in the Winston-Salem tournament. Yes, you read that right – Young had lost 17 straight matches before this week. The highest seed after Federer in this quarter is Tomas Berdych, who seems determined to give new meaning to the word ‘listless’, if his recent performances are anything to go by. There’s also Mardy Fish, who has spiraled all the way down to No. 24 from his Top 10 position just a month ago, and Fernando Verdasco, who looks hell-bent on giving Berdych competition in the listlessness department. Watch out for Sam Querrey, who’s enjoying his own mini-resurgence, to make some noise in this quarter, but Federer’s path to the semis seems all but assured given his relatively soft quarter.

Prediction: Federer def. Querrey

Dark horse: David Goffin

Second quarter: The Power Curse

Andy Murray is smart, Andy Murray is dour, Andy Murray is sometimes even a bit of a douche. But is he also cursed now? For the second successive Slam, Murray has been handed the draw from hell. Just reward for his breakthrough performance at the Olympics earlier this month, eh?

Murray starts with a fairly innocuous first-round match, against Alex Bogomolov Jr., but after that, he’ll have to make his way through one minefield after another. His likely opponents up to the quarters are Ivan Dodig, Feliciano Lopez and Milos Raonic, before a probable clash against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Now that is a power-packed lineup if ever there was one. And as if this draw wasn’t tough enough as it is, there are also Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori and Murray’s Cincinnati conqueror, Jeremy Chardy, in the mix, just to make sure things never get boring. Murray acquitted himself brilliantly at Wimbledon, where he had a similarly formidable-looking draw. Maybe, just maybe, that experience will have given the Olympic gold medalist the wherewithal to navigate this latest curve-ball that fate has thrown at him.

Prediction: Murray def. Tsonga

Dark horse: Kei Nishikori

Third Quarter: Thank you, Rafael Nadal!

The absence of Nadal from the draw was guaranteed to leave one of the four quarters a little light on star power. While the beneficiaries of that turn of events might not exactly be worshiping at the altar of Knee Tendinitis, they must almost certainly be saying a silent prayer of thanks at seeing their name pop up in a quarter lacking any member of the Big 4. David Ferrer is the player who has been bumped up to the No. 4 seed, and is the player who ostensibly has the most to gain from Nadal’s unfortunate injury, but there are several other players here who would only be too willing to grab their chance to make a rare Slam semifinal appearance.

Janko Tipsarevic, the 8th seed, is in a relatively obscure section of this quarter, and will likely face John Isner in the quarters. Brian Baker will likely be Tipsarevic’s second round foe, and while that one may go either way, a Baker win would be another step forward in the American’s painstaking comeback from a long line of career-threatening injuries. Talented headcases Grigor Dimitrov and Ernests Gulbis are lurking around in this quarter, as are shot-making veterans Philipp Kohlschreiber and Richard Gasquet. And for old times’ sake, former champion Lleyton Hewitt is here to make his noisy presence felt too, perhaps for the last time ever. But I’d still put my money on Ferrer, who, despite having a tricky first-rounder against Kevin Anderson, is the steadiest player in the quarter. And the fact that the Spaniard has been having a career year doesn’t hurt either.

Prediction: Ferrer def. Isner

Dark horse: Lleyton Hewitt

Fourth quarter: The champion’s last stand

This time last year, Novak Djokovic was putting the finishing touches to his untouchable 2011 season, which culminated with a stirring victory over Nadal in the US Open final. Now, he’s coming off the back of a couple of demoralizing semifinal losses at tournaments he was expected to win, or at least contest the finals of. If brushing aside the competition in Montreal was one step forward, his loss to Federer at Cincinnati, which included a bagel set, was going two steps back. Is there any particular reason Djokovic has been unable to reproduce his devastating 2011 form this year? You could say he’s showing signs of mental fatigue, but it’s also clear that the competition has gotten better. Djokovic is still beating the players he should beat, but he’s struggled at times against Federer and Murray, who are playing at a higher level than they were last year. So the Serb is perhaps fortunate that his quarter is filled with players ‘who he should beat’.

Djokovic’s first remotely challenging opponent will likely come in the form of Julien Benneteau in the third round, after which he’ll probably have to go up against Alexandr Dolgopolov or Stanislas Wawrinka. Headlining the other side of the quarter is Juan Martin Del Potro, who has a tantalizing opening round clash against countryman David Nalbandian. Other names of note in this quarter include Bernard Tomic, Ryan Harrison and sentimental favorite Andy Roddick. Does Roddick have one last run left in him? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Del Potro

Dark horse: Bernard Tomic

Semifinals:

Semifinal 1: The last time Federer and Murray met, it ended in a crushing, unprecedented loss for Federer – and on his favorite hunting ground, to boot. But Murray has still never defeated Federer at a Slam, and he can only be counted on to do so when he actually does.

Prediction: Federer def. Murray

Semifinal 2: Ferrer works extremely hard every single time he steps on the court, but all of his tenacity can’t hide the fact that he simply doesn’t have the game to challenge the big boys on the big stages. As always, he’ll give it everything he has, but it won’t be enough. Not against Djokovic on a hard-court.

Prediction: Djokovic def. Ferrer

Final: Federer and Djokovic have met at the US Open for five straight years, and Djokovic has famously won the last two times after saving a couple of match points. Will Federer have revenge on his mind? Maybe, but he’ll also be more liable to nerves, specially if he’s in a position to seal the deal. So if these two do end up contesting the final, expect an absolutely sizzling, barn-burning, firecracker of a match. Who will win? I’d give an edge, a very slight one at that, to Federer.

Prediction: Federer def. Djokovic