US Open women's final preview: Fighting for history, and against it

After two weeks of sometimes-spectacular, occasionally-cringeworthy and mostly entertaining tennis, it has come down to this: the two best players of 2012 fighting it out for the last big prize of the year. The World No. 1 and top seed versus the consensus greatest player of this generation. And why did we expect anything else, really? Women’s tennis has taken quite a few leaps forward this year, without anyone even noticing.

Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams have taken turns dominating the game this year: while Azarenka went on a tear to start the season, going 26-0 at one point, Serena has taken over since the start of the grasscourt swing, winning 25 of her last 26 matches. Azarenka has won four titles this year, Serena has won five. But we’ve seen this kind of situation before, haven’t we? A consistent, steady player entering a lot of tournaments and winning a bunch of second-tier ones to climb up the ranking ladder, only to be brought down to earth when pitted against a proven Slam champion. Jelena Jankovic, Dinara Safina and Caroline Wozniacki have all met that fate at some point of their careers or another, robbing the WTA of credibility in the process. There’s one difference this time, though: there’s a Major trophy in that bag of four titles collected by Azarenka this year. In other words, Azarenka is a proven Slam champion herself. And she’s done a good job of showcasing exactly that through her play up to the final.

The first four rounds were something of a breeze for Azarenka, but that didn’t stop her from being ready for the inevitable grinding battles in the crunch stages of the tournament. She beat defending champion Samantha Stosur and serial fighter Maria Sharapova in back-to-back 3-setters, and it’ll be hard to find anyone who will begrudge her a place in her first-ever US Open final (and second Major final of her career). While she suffered patches of anemic play in the first set against Sharapova yesterday, the manner in which she withstood the barrage of power-packed groundstrokes from the Russian in the second and third sets spoke as much about her superlative defense and quick feet as it did about her mental fortitude. The World No.1 actually played like one yesterday, coming out victorious at the end of a stare-down against the Ice Queen of the WTA, which is not something to be sneezed at. Things are working well for Azarenka at the moment: her serve is consistent, her groundstrokes are firing, and her emotions are in check.

Unfortunately for Azarenka, though, things are working even better for her final opponent right now. Serena’s play through the first six rounds here has been as close to flawless as tennis can possibly get. Players are finding out, with an ever-mounting sense of resignation, that there’s just no place to hide against the American. I thought both Ana Ivanovic and Sara Errani, Serena’s opponents in the quarters and the semis respectively, played borderline brilliant tennis in the two matches. That they came away with a combined total of seven games just tells you how otherworldly Serena’s form has been. We didn’t think it was possible, but Serena has actually become a better player before our eyes: her serve is decidedly an impenetrable weapon now, and she’s even seemingly done away with her customary mid-tournament slip-up now.

Let’s get real, then. Does Azarenka stand any chance at all against Serena today? At stake here is not just a Grand Slam trophy, but also bragging rights to the title of Player of the Year, so motivation certainly won’t be a problem for Azarenka. What will be a problem is the matchup dynamic: the head-to-head reads 9-1 in Serena’s favor, and that number gives a better indication than anything else of how things will likely shape up in the final. Azarenka can stay with Serena off the ground; her down-the-line backhand, in particular, can hurt even the best of movers, and you can bet that the Belarussian won’t be giving away too many free points through unforced errors. But Serena towers over Azarenka so tremendously in the serve department that it’s hard to figure out how Azarenka can extend the rallies beyond three or four shots with any measure of consistency. Serena’s return of serve is greatly underrated too; unless Azarenka gets an insanely high percentage of first serves in, her weak second delivery will be gobbled up by Serena without any remorse whatsoever.

In some ways, this final feels like deja vu; last year, Samantha Stosur reached the final on the back of a campaign as strong as Azarenka’s this year, if not stronger, and yet nobody gave her a chance against a rampaging Serena. We all know how that ended. Is it at all possible for history to repeat itself here? Serena has fought a lot of tough opponents in her career, folks. Fighting history will be a walk in the park.

Prediction: Serena in two sets