US Open women's semifinals preview: A quality affair

Maybe it’s time we retired the notion that women’s tennis is unpredictable and inconsistent. For the second time this year, three of the top four seeds have made it to the semifinals at a Slam; the other two times, there was no more than one ‘surprise’ semifinalist (Sara Errani at the French Open and Angelique Kerber at Wimbledon). Now, Errani is back to spoil the party, but she’s seeded at a much healthier position this time – No. 10. The other three semifinalists were all considered genuine title contenders before the event started, and if you disregard the way in which one particular player has distanced herself from the rest of the pack through her performances in the first five rounds, the semifinal stage looks set to be an ultra-competitive, high quality affair. So let’s take a look at how each of the match will likely shape up:

Semifinal 1: Victoria Azarenka vs Maria Sharapova

Head-to-head record: Azarenka leads 5-4

As tempting as it sounds, I’m not going to label this match the Battle of the Screamers. Instead, let’s just call it the Battle of the Power-baseliners. Azarenka and Sharapova can belt their groundstrokes alright, as many a bruised ball will testify. That they both also choose to accompany each of those missiles with a piercing shriek is purely incidental. When these two play against each other, the sheer volume of the proceedings can almost literally bring the roof down, so it’s perhaps a good thing that the Arthur Ashe stadium doesn’t have a roof after all. And since we’ve got that worry out of the way, we can concentrate on their games instead.

When Azarenka first burst on the scene a few years ago, she was branded by many as ‘Maria Sharapova 2.0′. Azarenka does a lot of things exactly like Sharapova, and a few things even better. Her movement, for one, looks positively gazelle-like when compared with the lumbering strides of Sharapova, an advantage that she exploited to perfection in her blowout wins over the Russian in their two hardcourt matches this year. Azarenka is also a lot more consistent with both her serve and groundstrokes; you know you’re not going to get too many free points when you play against her. The Belarussian is no mental midget either; she’s 11-0 in three set matches this year (which is not far off from Sharapova’s 12-0 record), and the mid-match meltdowns that she was known for at the start of her career are buried deep in the past.

Despite all those match-up disadvantages, though, Sharapova can still turn the contest on its head with the one weapon that is the preserve of multiple Slam champions alone – the ability to blow an opponent off the court. Azarenka may be Maria Sharapova 2.0, but the 1.0 version, while less refined, has more power. If Sharapova’s serve and groundstrokes, specially her occasionally erratic forehand, are working, she can challenge any woman not named Serena Williams. Unfortunately for her, that is a big ‘if’ at the moment; she coughed up way too many double faults in both her previous matches, and has looked a lot less assured than Azarenka has this tournament.

Prediction: Azarenka in two sets

Semifinal 2: Serena Williams vs Sara Errani

Head-to-head record: Serena leads 3-0

On paper, this should be a complete mis-match. Serena has won 14 Slams, while Errani has only ever reached one Slam final (which she lost). Serena’s serve is the best in history, while Errani regularly lobs up 75 mph first serves. Serena can bring the heat, and then some, on her groundstrokes, while Errani’s shots rarely land anywhere close to the lines (unless you’re talking about the service box lines). And when you factor in the form of the two players coming into this match, the disparity is accentuated even further. Should we expect anything other than a rout?

For some reason, I think we should. Serena hasn’t undergone her customary mid-tournament slip-up yet. She has looked completely dialed-in up to this point, that’s true, but I can’t remember a single Slam where Serena went through the entire tournament without suffering a hiccup somewhere along the way. Errani is exactly the type of opponent that can frustrate Serena, too. The Italian has taken the term ‘human backboard’ to a whole new level in recent months, and is perfectly capable of fetching the power-packed shots that Serena unleashes. With her high, venomous topspin, she can take her opponents out of their comfort zone and force them to play the match on her terms, which is always a rewarding strategy.

Errani has performed remarkably well all year, and now even has some big-match experience from her draw-slashing campaign at Roland Garros. Her dismantling of Angelique Kerber in the fourth round was particularly impressive (even if it did put me to sleep), and she will enter this semifinal as the proverbial dark horse with nothing to lose. And if Serena’s losses to Ekaterina Makarova in Melbourne and Virginie Razzano in Paris are anything to go by, facing a player with nothing to lose is not a prospect that she always enjoys.

Serena might just end up playing this match in terminator mode, destroying Errani with a barrage of big serves and bigger groundstrokes. But I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict a close match.

Prediction: Serena in three sets (yes, that’s as ‘close’ as I can dare to predict with Serena in this kind of form)