Why Alex de Minaur should be the No. 1 dark horse for Australian Open 2025

Alex de Minaur didn’t start off his career doing well against some of the best players in the world. In fact, his record against players ranked in the top five was 0-18 to start his career. For a player that was once considered a rising star, it wasn’t a really good look. It was a harsh reality check, but it didn’t deter him. From February of 2018, when the first loss happened, to November of 2022, when he finally beat a top 5 player, de Minaur worked tirelessly.

In those first 18 losses, de Minaur managed to win only six sets, and that wasn’t just bad luck. It was simply proof of the limitations in his game, and they were plentiful. Now, at 25, de Minaur looks better, much better. The journey wasn’t easy. In 2019, he was part of the Next Gen Finals alongside players like Stefanos Tsitsipas, Denis Shapovalov, Taylor Fritz, and Andrey Rublev.

What makes de Minaur unique in that group of players is the lack of a big weapon. Unlike those players, who all have a signature shot, de Minaur doesn’t have any. His serve isn’t dominant, and neither is his forehand. His greatest asset always was speed. It’s where the nickname "Speed Demon" came from. His speed and consistency from the baseline would be the staples upon which he would build his game.

As for the game itself, it’s unusual in many ways. He grew up in Spain and trained for much of his life in Spain, but unlike most Spanish players, his strokes are incredibly flat. That makes him a very tough opponent to beat; however, that in itself wasn’t enough for him to beat the best players in the world. He didn’t have much success early on in his career, but success isn’t the only metric for a career. At least not success related to trophies. Alex de Minaur always had a unique outlook on his career.

“The one thing I want to achieve in my career is that I can sit on the couch, once it’s all said and done, and know that I gave myself the best shot and I did everything I could. I don’t want to have any regrets. That means getting the most out of myself and seeing where I need to improve, what I need to do in certain situations to ultimately be able to finish my career and be content and know that I gave it my all,” Alex de Minaur told UTS in February 2024.

Regret is something that does bother a lot of players when they conclude their careers. "If only I did this," "If this happened differently." Regret is a very human emotion, and all who draw breath have wrestled with it at one point in their lives. Look at players like Tsitsipas and Rublev. They both had more success than Alex de Minaur early on in their careers, but nowadays, you might argue that the Aussie is in a better position.

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Alex de Minaur as an Australian Open dark horse

Alex de Minaur just had the best season of his life and is set to improve even further. That didn’t come overnight but over many months of targeted practice and most importantly, adaptation. He didn’t sit on his game; rather, he reinvented it because he had to.

“I’m playing a lot more aggressive, bringing a lot of variety. Maybe in the past, I relied a little bit too much on my speed. That’s won me a lot of matches, but I think to make the next step and beat the top guys I needed to implement a bit more firepower, a bit more belief, and more importantly, in the big moments, have a positive mindset and go out there and take it. I was never going to beat the top guys by being passive,” de Minaur told the Guardian in January 2024.

This change has paid off. Over the past two years, de Minaur has won seven out of 19 matches against top five players, broken into the top 10, and qualified for his first ATP Finals.

The progress is pretty evident, and the numbers tell it quite clearly. He is improving and quite significantly, slowly but surely making his way to the top five. Players like Rublev and Tsitsipas might have been ahead, but they might be left in the dust in a year or two, and all thanks to a relentless willingness to work and adapt. That will do wonders for him in 2025, and while the heights of Sinner and Alcaraz seem unlikely, the Australian is certainly fulfilling his own goal of finishing his career without any regrets.

The free-flowing state of mind without a singular goal Alex de Minaur must achieve is what ultimately makes him so dangerous as a player. He's already achieving what he set out to do, and everything else comes as a bonus. That bonus might just be winning a Grand Slam, and it might just be at the 2025 Australian Open. It also might not, but he's certainly one of those who might surprise when nobody sees it coming.