Why Iga Swiatek lost more points and was overtaken by Aryna Sabalenka as the World No. 1 ahead of WTA Finals 2024

Aryna Sabalenka has supplanted Iga Swiatek as the World No. 1 this week. The former closed the gap in the last few months with her triumphs at the Cincinnati Open, the US Open, and the Wuhan Open. The latter, meanwhile, skipped the Asian swing completely.

Following Sabalenka's victory at the Wuhan Open, her third consecutive title at the venue, she tailed her younger rival by a handful of points. She had 9,716 points to her name last week, while Swiatek was on top with 9,785 points. However, both players dropped a few points this week as a penalty for not participating in enough WTA 500 events.

All players were supposed to compete in at least six WTA 500 tournaments starting from this year. Swiatek entered only two such events, the United Cup and the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Sabalenka, meanwhile, took part in four of them. With the season coming to an end, it was clear that these two wouldn't fulfill their obligations.

As such, both were hit with the zero-pointer penalty for not meeting this requirement. That is, their lowest score from a tournament which counted towards their ranking was nullified. Swiatek dropped 120 points she gained from her fourth-round finish at the Miami Open, while Sabalenka lost 10 points from her second-round exit from the Dubai Tennis Championships.

After deducting these points, Sabalenka was left with 9,706 points, and Swiatek had 9,665 points. Thus, the Belarusian rose to the top this week to commence her ninth week atop the summit. She ascended to the top of the rankings for the first time after the conclusion of last year's US Open and remained there for eight weeks.

Both players will drop more points next week as well due to their absence from the mandated WTA 500 tournaments. Sabalenka will drop down to 9,641 points as she will lose 65 points from her third-round appearance at the Miami Open. Swiatek, on the other hand, will forfeit 195 points from her semifinal showing in Stuttgart, and her next week's tally will stand at 9,470 points.

That is not all, as points from the WTA Finals 2023 will be removed from their tally the week after that. Swiatek will drop 1500 points as the defending champion, and Sabelenka will lose 625 points as the semifinalist. This will give the Belarusian a massive lead to secure her first finish as the year-end No. 1.

After the points from last year's WTA Finals are removed, Sabalenka will have 9,016 points, and Swiatek will be left with 7,970 points. However, the latter will still have a chance to end the season as the top-ranked player, though she doesn't control her own fate.

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Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka to battle it out for the year-end No. 1 spot at the WTA Finals 2024

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek at the Italian Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will duke it out for the right to conclude the season as the World No. 1 at the WTA Finals for the second year in a row. Their showdown at last year's season-ending championships ended in the Pole's favor.

Swiatek needed to win the tournament without losing a single match in the group stage, and she did just that. Sabalenka had the opportunity to stop this from happening but she lost to her younger adversary in the semifinals.

Given the huge lead, Sabalenka has this time, the odds are stacked massively in her favor. Even if Swiatek wins the title, the Belarusian could still end the year as the World No. 1 if she wins at least two of her group-stage matches. She controls her own destiny at this point, and unlike last year, she doesn't have to worry about bumping into her main rival to do the deed.

Since Sabalenka and Swiatek will be the top two seeds at the WTA Finals, they won't be drawn in the same group. The earliest they could meet is in the semifinals, depending on where they place during the group stage. If both of them top their respective groups, then they would only lock horns in the final.

While Swiatek already crossed off a title at the WTA Finals from her list, Sabalenka is yet to do the same. She came quite close to winning it two years ago but lost to Caroline Garcia in the final. Given her current form, it wouldn't be surprising to see her claim another big title to end the season on a high.