Why Naomi Osaka is a real dark horse now for Miami Open 2025

To consider Naomi Osaka as a dark horse to win an event sounds strange considering how good she has been historically and how good she can be, but the reality in tennis is that she is not favored to win any events.

That’s just the harsh reality, but with her play so far at the Miami Open, the Japanese player certainly has an argument for being considered the top dark horse to win the event, and we’re going to break down why that is.

It’s not just due to the fact that she’s feeling ‘at home’ in Miami, as she said the other day, but there is also the court that factors into all of that as well as the conditions, which do tend to favor how she likes to play.

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Naomi Osaka’s Miami Run So Far

Miami Open Presented by Itau 2025 - Day 3 - Source: Getty

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the why and how, let’s look at how she performed so far at the event. Osaka has played two matches so far, both tricky and both really solid wins. The first one was a shaky performance overall, as she lost a set, but there was a lot to like in that one.

She served well, hitting 10 aces overall and returning the ball pretty well too. She also smashed the ball from the baseline at a decent level, and ultimately, that dominance is what allowed her to persevere against the very inspired Starodubtseva.

Most of what went right for her in this match went right for her in the second match, which was a win over Liudmila Samsonova. Osaka once again dominated on her serve, hitting six aces overall and dropping only six points behind that serve. Knowing how well Samsonova can return, that’s an impressive stat.

She also hit the ball extremely well from the baseline and overwhelmed her opponent without too many issues.

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Naomi Osaka’s Key to Success in Miami

The reason why we think she’s one of the main dark horses in Miami is simply the total package. Naomi Osaka loves to play in Miami—she grew up around these parts, she enjoys the climate, she enjoys the vibe. There is certainly a type of chillness about her when she’s around here.

How well she does at the event is best showcased by her making the final a few years ago in the middle of her mental health struggles, which shows that even at her lowest point, there is something about Miami that makes things click for her.

Another reason why it’s more likely to happen here than somewhere else is the conditions. The court plays pretty well for Osaka, as it’s faster than Indian Wells but has that same bounciness, which will allow her to really get the racquet on the ball. She essentially has time to unload from the baseline, and when she gets on a heater from the baseline, it’s very hard to stop her.

Additionally, her serve seemingly goes up a level or two in Miami. Last year was a very good serving performance from her, and this year so far, she’s kept that up. The Japanese player has totaled 16 aces so far at the event. That’s a rate higher than in general compared to her other events, and it’s very likely to continue.

So she essentially dominates on her serve, she dominates from the baseline—so what’s not to like? With Osaka, it mostly comes down to the movement, which at times still can be quite funky. You need to move well around these courts because if you do, you’re going to give yourself decent chances to win the match.

Finally, there is the confidence factor. She seems to be more confident this week, rarely second-guessing any of her choices. That’s vital because if she can combine her excellent ball striking with that unwavering confidence that she had in the early stages of her career, Osaka might just put together a fairytale run.

After all, her draw is rather favorable with Hailey Baptiste in the 3rd round. That’s a matchup she should win, and after that, it’s either Ons Jabeur or Jasmine Paolini, two players who have been less than stellar so far this year.

All these factors combined make her the most likely, proper dark horse candidate to surprise and win the event.