Why Naomi Osaka's Indian Wells 2025 exit will feel more crushing for Japanese superstar than any other loss in recent memory

Naomi Osaka ended her 2025 Indian Wells Masters campaign with a loss in the first round to Camila Osorio. As great as Osorio can be, and she’s truly a great tennis player capable of hitting with the best, the loss is one of the worst losses for Osaka since her return from pregnancy.

It’s not the worst loss because of the loss itself. It’s the worst loss because of what it implies. If you had a chance to read our three storylines ahead of the 2025 Indian Wells Masters you might remember us predicting Osaka wouldn’t make the event's second week.

This is one of those long Masters that lasts almost two weeks and while we didn’t think Osaka would make the second week mostly due to her tough draw with Mirra Andreeva in there, we didn’t feel she would lose so early. Her track record at the Indian Wells Masters has been mixed.

She won the event in 2018 but that was a very different Naomi Osaka from the one right now. Last year though she made the third round and looked pretty decent. This year though it wasn’t very good.

Let’s contextualize the loss. It’s not a terrible loss because Osaka played fantastic tennis this year. She came into the event with a 6-3 record so nothing spectacular and her play earlier in the year wasn’t special by any means certainly not by her standards.

However, we have to look at the court. It’s a high-bouncing relatively slow court quite suited for how Osaka likes to play. She has a massive serve and when she hits a good serve she will get a practice ball back which she can turn into a winner.

Naomi Osaka has added time as the ball doesn’t fly back too quickly. That’s a good thing as her movement has been one of the bigger issues since she returned from pregnancy. Those factors make this an event where she technically should do well, especially considering that Indian Wells is her backyard. She lives in Los Angeles which is two hours away from the complex. She trains at UCLA which is also nearby. This is about as close as it can get for a home event for her and yet she bombed it.

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What happened in the Naomi Osaka 1st round loss?

Naomi Osaka at BNP Paribas Open - Day 1 - Source: Getty

Naomi Osaka's opponent was Camila Osorio. For those who are not quite familiar with her game, she’s a Colombian player who punches above her weight quite literally. She’s not the most physically imposing player but can produce big power from the baseline, not as much as some other players but good enough to create pressure.

The Japanese can also hit well from the baseline so you will often see her give big names some trouble. On the other hand, she’s quite streaky and it shows. She will have matches where she is blown off the court by a player not on her level.

In this specific match, Osorio played pretty okay. She did well on her first serve, struggled on the second serve, and faced eight break points in total. Far from perfect and far from her best but she did well enough to win.

Naomi Osaka was the bigger story. After the match, she took to social media to say it was the worst match she had ever played.

"Worst match I’ve ever played in my life. Wow. I’m so sorry for everyone who watched that," Naomi Osaka tweeted after the match.

That might be a bit of an overreaction but it was a really poor effort. She didn’t play well at all accumulating over 50 unforced errors in only 20 games of play. It wasn’t a long match but Osaka blasted over two unforced errors per game which is a lot, too much for this level of tennis.

It’s a shame because Osaka likely expected much better from herself which makes this a rather crushing one. A big theme for Osaka since her return has been that she has really high expectations of herself but continuously fails to meet them.

It’s almost as if Naomi Osaka is holding onto the level she had at her peak. That level has been gone for years and is unlikely to return. We’re seeing a player struggling to accept that she might never be as good as she once was and it’s painful to watch.

This loss and Osaka's disappointment encapsulate that whole reality. Time will tell whether that’s true, but this loss almost seems like the final nail in the coffin of a player once hailed as the most talented player since Serena Williams.