Why Novak Djokovic will still only be 2nd favorite at French Open despite Rafael Nadal's doubtful participation

The majority of the tennis world has always maintained that Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are great clay-court players but their prowess had been eclipsed by Rafael Nadal's extraordinary dominance on the red dirt.

Both Djokovic and Nadal made their first appearances at the French Open in 2005, and while the Serb bowed out in the second round, the Spaniard went on to lift his maiden Grand Slam title at the age of 19. Since then, regardless of form, ranking and situation, Nadal has always been considered the favorite at Roland Garros.

In his 18 appearances in Paris so far, the 36-year-old has won the tournament an unprecedented 14 times, with a 112-3 win-loss record and a win percentage of over 97%. He lost his first match on Court Philippe-Chatrier in 2009 in the fourth round against Robin Soderling.

The other two losses came against Djokovic — in the 2015 quarterfinals and 2021 semifinals. A wrist injury forced the Mallorcan to withdraw after the second round in 2016.

2009 saw Roger Federer win his lone French Open title. The 35-year-old Serb has won the Grand Slam tournament twice but Nadal holds an impressive 8-2 record against him at Roland Garros. Yet to recover from a hip injury that he suffered in January, the Spaniard's participation in his favorite tournament is still up in the air.

Any year before 2023, had Nadal been absent from the main draw in Paris, Djokovic would have automatically been dubbed the top contender. However, the World No. 1 will still enter the tournament as the second favorite this time, behind another Spaniard — Carlos Alcaraz.

The young gun has taken the tennis world by storm in the last year and a half, having won four Masters 1000 titles and the 2022 US Open, along with numerous other records. The majority of experts and fans have already declared that he belongs in the league of the Big 3.

Despite missing out on a few events (including the Melbourne Major) at the beginning of this season, the 20-year-old has so far won 29 out of his 31 matches and four titles. He withdrew from the Monte-Carlo Masters due to an injury but returned strongly and won the Barcelona Open without dropping a set, and the Madrid Open at the loss of just two sets.

Undefeated in the clay-court swing so far, Alcaraz has won 11 matches. As soon as he defended his title in the Spanish capital last week, he reduced the deficit between himself and No. 1 Djokovic to five ranking points. This meant that the youngster just had to turn up at the Italian Open and play a match to become the new World No. 1.

The result will not matter. Even if Alcaraz bows out in his opening match and the Serb goes on to win the tournament, a change in the rankings is inevitable. Alcaraz will enter the 2023 French Open as the top seed and his stunning recent form has forced the tennis world to put him over Djokovic as the favorite.

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Novak Djokovic was No. 1 seed when he won French Open titles

2021 French Open

After beating Rafael Nadal in the 2015 French Open quarterfinals, Novak Djokovic had a chance to win his first Paris Major but lost to Stan Wawrinka in the final. However, the Serb returned as the top seed and won the championship in 2016 when he downed Andy Murray in the title clash.

In the 2021 semifinals, he defeated Nadal for the second time at Roland Garros and entered the final against Stefanos Tsitisipas as the favorite. Although the Greek took the first two sets from the No. 1 seed, the Serb used his experience to turn things around and clinch his second title at the French Open and his 19th overall.