Why Rafael Nadal has strong chance to break the jinx and win maiden titles at Paris Masters and ATP Finals this season

Rafael Nadal has won a staggering 92 career titles on the ATP tour and his name features on the 'honors board' of almost all of the biggest tournaments in world tennis. However, titles at the two big events at the end of the season, the Paris Masters and ATP Finals have always eluded him. The Spaniard has a golden opportunity to turn those fortunes around this season.

Injuries have constantly hampered him over the years and have played a bigger role in adding to the wear and tear as the season progresses. Additionally, his game has not flourished in indoor hardcourt conditions and he has been unable to translate his incredible success at other tournaments to the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, both played on indoor hardcourts.

Nadal's best result at the Paris Masters was a run to the finals in 2007. In fact, he has made just nine appearances at the ATP Masters 1000 event since turning pro in 2001, with injuries rendering him unable to play on most occasions. He has missed the ATP Finals seven times in all, with his best results there being two finals in 2010 and 2013.

The demands of a busy season leading up to both tournaments have often caught up with the Spaniard. But the Paris Masters and ATP Finals will see a well-rested Nadal this time around. Having played just six matches (including the Laver Cup) since Wimbledon, he will be relatively fresher towards the end of the 2022 season.

It can be argued that while less match time in the last three months on tour could be detrimental, it could be a blessing in disguise in Nadal's case. He played in the Australian Open Series earlier this year after coming back from a six-month layoff and ended up winning two tournaments, including the Australian Open, which is traditionally his least successful Major.

Nadal recently revealed that he has not completely overcome the abdominal injury that forced him to pull out of Wimbledon, but time away from the tour and visuals of his recent training sessions suggest that he should be fully fit in time for the Paris Masters and ATP Finals.

The 22-time Grand Slam champion is experiencing a great run of form and confidence this year, having lost just five matches all season, with a 38-5 win-loss record. He also won four titles in 2022 and is tied with his great rival Novak Djokovic for second place for most ATP singles titles won this year.

Nadal's biggest challenge at the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, however, will come from Djokovic, who looks in stellar form going into both those tournaments and has won a combined 11 titles so far. The Serbian recently won titles in consecutive weeks in Tel Aviv and Astana.

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Year-end World No.1 an added motivation for Rafael Nadal at Paris Masters and ATP Finals

Rafael Nadal at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals.

Rafael Nadal will have the added motivation to end the year as World No. 1 for the sixth time in his career. He is the favorite to challenge current No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz for the top spot and does not have any points to defend at either the Paris Masters or the ATP Finals. The Spanish legend is 930 points behind Alcaraz in the rankings and knows that he will need to do well in both tournaments to be able to surpass his compatriot.

A look at the Spaniard's most successful campaigns at the Paris Masters and ATP Finals (2007, 2013, and 2020 - among others) also suggests that he has a tendency to do well in both events when he is fresh and not worn out by a recent injury. He last played in both tournaments in 2020 and reached back-to-back semifinals.

Additionally, the 36-year-old will also be much more relaxed going into these events after his wife Maria Francisca Perello reportedly gave birth to their son Rafael Nadal Perello this past weekend, ending a complicated and tense pregnancy situation over the last few weeks as the Spanish player revealed at the US Open and Laver Cup.