Why Rafael Nadal will go past Roger Federer's tally of Grand Slam titles

After a riveting clash against 23-year-old Daniil Medvedev that lasted almost 5 hours, Rafael Nadal won the US Open for the 4th time to claim his 19th Grand Slam title. And with that, the legendary Spaniard reduced the gap between him and Roger Federer to just one Grand Slam title (Federer leads the Slam pack with 20).

Here is a video showing the highlights of the US Open final, where Nadal was pushed to the brink but still emerged triumphant:

Now, the question is: will Nadal go past Federer’s tally?

If you are a hardcore Federer fan, you might want to believe that the Swiss Maestro cannot be pushed off his perch, that Federer can continue to keep time at bay and carry on forever. But if we were to look at things realistically, Nadal has many things in his favor.

To start with, Federer is 38, and Nadal 33. Even though there can be an argument that Nadal cannot carry on till 38, it would be safe to assume that the Spaniard surely has more years ahead of him on the court than Federer at this point.

Secondly, no mortal man has owned a particular Grand Slam like Nadal has owned the French Open. Nadal has won 12 out of the past 15 French Open tournaments, and it would need a miracle to stop him from winning next year as well.

Even assuming that Nadal has a maximum of three years ahead of him, adding three more French Open titles will take his tally to 22.

Further, ever since winning the Australian Open in 2018, Federer has struggled in the big moments of matches, and has been unable to deliver the killer punch. At Wimbledon 2018 he had a match point in the third set but squandered it, and allowed Kevin Anderson to claw his way back into the match and ultimately beat him in five sets.

In the 2019 Wimbledon final against Novak Djokovic, Federer again lost steam in the critical moments of the match, and emerged second best in spite of playing sublime tennis.

Also, a comparison between the two greats over the last decade (2010 to 2019) delivers a clear picture. From the beginning of 2010 until the 2019 US Open, Federer has just won 5 Grand Slam titles, and his progress has been heavily slowed down due to the exploits of Nadal and Djokovic.

By contrast, Nadal has won 13 Grand Slam titles in the same period, including 8 French Open titles.

Federer has delayed the inevitable with his stunning second wind that has extended his glorious career (remember the 2017 Australian Open final?). But it would be very tough for the Swiss Maestro to significantly add to his Grand Slam tally from this point on.

The next year - 2020 - is going to be a riveting one in men’s tennis as Nadal chases the ultimate goal of leading the Grand Slam tally, and dethroning the Swiss Maestro from the pedestal that he has been occupying for a long time.

While the debate over who the ultimate G.O.A.T is can be reserved for another day, from a purely statistically standpoint it is certainly ‘Advantage Nadal’.