Why Roger Federer will never win another Grand Slam

Roger Federer

I’m a Federer fan, but I’m not delusional

At the outset, let me declare this: I love Roger Federer. He is the Greatest Male Player of All Time in my opinion, and I sincerely hope he does win an 18th Grand Slam title, and a 19th, and even a 20th.

Federer’s elegant on-court style and precision shot-making have given me tremendous delight over the years; there’s just something about him that makes you respect and admire him. He has achieved everything there is to achieve in tennis, and his dominance of the sport during his glory days had to be seen to be believed.

But with each passing Major in recent times, I have started to come to terms with the fact that Federer may never win an 18th Grand Slam title; that he may never add to his record haul of 17 Majors.

I hope I’m wrong; I sincerely do. But here is why I’m afraid I won’t be.

The big match brilliance has all but disappeared

Federer just turned 33 years old last month – and that’s ancient by tennis standards. Sure, he’s had a remarkable 2014 in which he has bounced back all the way to No. 3 in the rankings (at one point last year, he was in danger of dropping out of the top 10), and has even put himself in contention for the year-end World No. 1 spot.

But the bitter truth is that in spite of being healthy, playing confidently, being motivated and inspired by his new coach and childhood idol Stefan Edberg, Federer came up short at both Wimbledon and the US Open.

In the Wimbledon final, the Swiss player fought hard and valiantly to take Novak Djokovic to a fifth set, but he wasn’t able to keep the momentum going in the decider. At the just-concluded US Open, Federer was knocked out by the red-hot Marin Cilic, even as he was the only member of the Big Four left in the draw.

Marin Cilic took out Roger Federer in straight sets at the Arthur Ashe stadium

Both his traditional rivals and the young guns are waiting to ambush him

Come January, the other members of the Big Four – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray – will be raring to go.

Djokovic should be refreshed after the birth of his child; Rafael Nadal will likely skip the rest of this season and make another assault for the French Open and Andy Murray will have fine-tuned his game and fitness enough to be a contender at the Slams once again.

Where does that leave Federer, you ask? Vulnerable!

Keeping aside the Big Four, Federer also finds himself vulnerable to the big-hitters in the game today – the Berdychs, Tsongas and Cilics. And add to this, the emergence of a new order (Nishikori, Dimitrov, Raonic, Kyrgios) only adds to Federer’s problems.

Age has irreparably worn down the consistency

Beating the likes of Djokovic and Nadal in best-of-three matches on the weekly ATP Tour may not pose such a Herculean task for Federer. But winning seven best-of-five set matches over two weeks may be too much for a 33-year-old.

For all the talk about how Federer is currently playing as well as he ever has, there’s no denying that the consistency in his game has been severely eroded in recent times. It’s not unusual to see him regularly make 40+ unforced errors in a single match these days, something which was unthinkable in his glory years.

In particular, the return of serve and the backhand have become liabilities for Federer now, and even his vaunted forehand can sometimes go off the rails spectacularly.

For his rivals, the gap between 27 and 28 may not be much on the tennis age scale, but the gap between 32 and 33 is certainly wide. And this gap gets wider every year for the 17-time Slam winer.

The man himself still believes, but is that enough?

It’s hard being a Roger Federer fan these days, but it doesn’t seem to be hard to be Federer. Speaking soon after being knocked out by Marin Cilic in the semifinal of the US Open, Federer told the media, “Tennis there is so many highlights thankfully, so I have something to do next Friday already again. I'll be, you know, very preoccupied with that starting right now. And after that I'm going to hopefully play a good end to the season.”

Yes, Federer still has a strong chance to ensure that 2014 ends as a ‘good’ season for him. He is playing Davis Cup this weekend, and along with Stan Wawrinka, has a golden opportunity to add one of the very few titles missing from his CV.

But when it comes to the Slams, 2014 has been a disappointment for Federer. And while he himself may not admit it, the chase for that 18th Slam is probably what keeps him motivated.

It’s hard to believe that Federer would continue playing if he did not think he had another Slam in him. So I hope I am wrong about all of this, and that he does actually add to his Slam tally soon.

It’s not looking likely though.