Why the 2014 US Open is Federer’s best chance to win a Grand Slam

Roger Federer

Roger Federer has been in sublime touch in the run-up the 2014 US Open final. He wrapped up the Cincinnati Masters, the final ATP event prior to the US Open, without breaking much of a sweat. Prior to that, he breezed into the finals of the Rogers Cup, where he ran into the enigma called Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who had already eliminated three top-10 players in Novak Djokovic (destroyed him 6-2, 6-2), Andy Murray and alleged ‘Baby Federer’, Grigor Dimitrov. The final was a close affair, but the Frenchman outgunned Federer 7-5, 7-6(3); this minor blemish notwithstanding, there is no arguing the fact that Federer is currently in great form.

One of the biggest factors tipping the scales in Federer’s favour is the withdrawal of Rafael Nadal from the 2014 US Open due to a wrist injury. The man is undoubtedly Federer’s nemesis, having an overall head-to-head advantage of 23-10; the statistic becomes even more powerful when we consider that Nadal has won six out the last six meetings with Federer in Grand Slams.

In fact, the last time Federer beat Nadal in a Grand Slam was in the finals of Wimbledon 2007; such has been the vice-like grip Nadal has had over Federer in recent years, especially in big matches. Though Federer may deny it, in cricketing terms, he is Nadal’s bunny; he just doesn’t seem to find a way past the scrambling, muscular Spaniard. His absence may take the sheen off a victory, if it does happen, but after a two-year wait for a Slam victory, I do not think Federer’s fans, yours truly included, will complain.

The absence of Nadal also ensures that Federer is seeded second at the US Open, as opposed to third if Nadal was playing. Keeping numerological aspects firmly aside, this lays out a much easier path to the final for Federer, where the major players he is likely to encounter are David Ferrer and Grigor Dimitrov, none of whom are likely to ouster Federer in his current form. His likely opponent in the final, Djokovic’s path is strewn with potential giant killers, including Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Stan Wawrinka, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, John Isner, etc.

If Federer does make it to the final, his opponent is likely to have been on court much longer, having battled through the tougher opponents in that half. Fitness will be a major hurdle in Federer’s path, as was seen during the epic Wimbledon 2014 final, where Djokovic outlasted him in 5 sets. The draw has definitely been kind to Federer, and if things go as expected, we can expect to see a fresher Federer in the final against more worked out Djokovic or his conqueror.

Destiny has presented Federer with a triple opportunity – excellent form, Nadal’s absence and a perfect draw, as he heads into US Open 2014. At 33, Federer, if not on his last legs, is gradually getting there. A loss here, in the most favourable of conditions, on one of his most favourite courts, could be a massive blow from which he may never recover. For his sake, and for the sake of the rare brand of magical tennis he plays, fans around the world would be rooting for him; the next two weeks will tell us whether the maestro will rise up yet again in the twilight of his career, or if this could signal the beginning of the end.