Wimbledon 2010: The Search For the Williams Toppler

We’re about a couple of Wimbledons away from starting to call the British Grand Slam the ‘Williams Invitational Event’, so it wouldn’t be amiss to say that it is time a player not named Williams stepped up and proved that grass is not the preserve of Venus and Serena alone. A Williams sister has made the final in 9 out of the last 10 Wimbledon championships, winning a whopping 8 times. Some dominance, huh? There have been brief hiccups, like in 2004 when Maria Sharapova threatened, if only fleetingly, to upend the balance of power on the quickest surface in tennis by cruising past Serena in the final, and of course, in 2006, when Amelie Mauresmo and Justine Henin ensured that there would be no Williams in the final for the only time in the decade. But since then order has been restored – Venus has nonchalantly picked up a couple of titles to add to her 3 earlier victories, while Serena won the title last year for her 3^rd Wimbledon success after fighting off her elder sister in the final. Is there any reason to suspect that the trend may be bucked this year? A close look at the women’s draw for this year’s tournament is the need of the hour, I’d say.

Quarter 1: Revenge is Sweet

By a strange quirk of fate, the only woman apart from Venus to have ever defeated Serena Williams in the final of a Grand Slam has been spared the predicament of facing her vengeful victim again on the scene of her triumph. Sharapova and Serena have not met each other at Wimbledon since that famous Sharapova win in the 2004 final, but you can bet that the memory of each and every missed opportunity and untimely unforced error from that match has been burned on Serena’s mind. This time the two are slated to meet in the 4^th round, assuming Sharapova gets by the deceptive Daniela Hantuchova in the 3^rd round and Serena douses the challenge of either Dominika Cibulkova or grass specialist Tamarine Tanasugarn in her 3^rd round match. Expect fireworks from Serena’s racquet if that 4^th round matchup does indeed come to pass – Sharapova may be close to her best after her shoulder injury, but there’s nothing more dangerous in tennis than a Serena with revenge on her mind. A quarterfinal against Li Na, Svetlana Kuznetsova or Agnieszka Radwanska looms for Williams, but who are we kidding? This is Wimbledon.

Prediction: Serena def. Li Na

Dark horse: Lucie Safarova

Quarter 2: Glamorously Unglamorous

Caroline Wozniacki leads the seeds in this strange little section of the draw that is bereft of the usual heavyweights but should make for a highly competitive bunch of matches nevertheless. Wozniacki has had a tough couple of months, battling injuries and critics on her way to some limp performances, but she did make the quarters of the French Open, which suggests that she means business when it comes to the big tournaments. Speaking of the French Open, beaten finalist Samantha Stosur finds herself in this quarter too, but her crushing topspin forehand which was so effective on the clay will not be half as penetrating on the faster grasscourts of Wimbledon. Other big names that lurk here are those of the forgotten Italian Flavia Pennetta and grass-loving former semifinalist Jie Zheng, but I’m liking the chances of Victoria Azarenka, who seems to have finally gotten over her extended slump by putting together a good run this week in Eastbourne.

Prediction: Azarenka def. Stosur

Dark horse: Aravane Rezai

Quarter 3: Battle of the Belgians, Revisited

The 3 top Belgians have been grouped in the same quarter for the second Slam out of the last 3 (the same had happened at the Australian Open), and I think Kim Clijsters in particular must be wondering what she’d have to do to get away from her past nemesis Justine Henin in the big tournaments. Clijsters’s game is not suited to grass, and she’s never made it past the semifinals here, so it might not be a big surprise if she flames out early. Henin, on the other hand, will be feeling the full weight of her self-inflicted pressure of needing to do well here – not many would have forgotten that at the time of announcing her return to tennis earlier this year, she had earmarked completing the career Grand Slam by winning Wimbledon as her primary objective. Yanina Wickmayer, meanwhile, has been slowly getting back into her groove after undergoing surgery just weeks before the French Open, so expect decent results from her but not a major, head-turning run. And before I forget, the highest seed in this section is Jelena Jankovic, who’ll have so little pressure on her considering her aversion to grass (never mind that 2006 3^rd round victory over Venus Williams) that she may just be able to thrive while floating under the radar. Russian headcases Nadia Petrova and Vera Zvonareva make up the rest of the big names, but it’d take some truly inspired tennis from them to edge out their Belgian counterparts.

Prediction: Henin def. Wickmayer

Dark horse: Melanie Oudin

Quarter 4: Stroll for the Queen

The Queen of Grass has waved a regal hand, and her subjects have meekly acquiesced. The five-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams could not have asked for an easier draw, having avoided nearly all the potential title contenders in her section. She might face a trio of tricky opponents – Ekaterina Makarova (who’s reached the final of the Eastbourne tournament), Alisa Kleybanova and Shahar Peer in the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th rounds respectively, but I don’t see her quaking in her shoes at the thought of playing any of these women. A potential quarterfinal against French Open champion Francesca Schiavone awaits, but no one is ever going to mistake the plucky Italian for an accomplished grasscourter. Dinara Safina and Ana Ivanovic, two players formerly ranked World No.1, will have to iron out major chinks in their games just to have any hope of escaping the first round. 2007 finalist Marion Bartoli and our very own Sania Mirza populate this quarter too, but they will both need quite a bit of divine intervention to make a dent in the Williams armor.

Prediction: Venus def. Bartoli

Dark horse: I can’t make up my mind as to which unnoticed player might make a nice run here, so I’m naming as many as 3 players from this quarter as dark horses – Yaroslava Shvedova, Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez and Alisa Kleybanova.

Semifinals

Semifinal 1: Last year Azarenka and Serena faced off in the quarterfinals, a match that Serena won handily. I expect more of the same this year. Azarenka doesn’t have as many tools to hurt Serena on grass as she does on hardcourts; her movement, for one, is not entirely efficient on the skidding surface, and Serena’s serve is far superior to that of Azarenka’s, or to that of any other player in the world, for that matter.

Prediction: Serena def. Azarenka

Semifinal 2: Henin may have been making onlookers cringe with the flurry of errors she’s been racking up in her bid to adapt her game to the attack-minded style of past grasscourt champions, but I believe she’s got the right idea. Her serve is still more of a liability than a weapon, but her groundstrokes have never had more oomph than they do now and she’s always been one of the more skilful volleyers on the tour. Venus, on the other hand, usually performs best when she builds up a head of steam by getting past challenging opponents in the earlier rounds. This time it doesn’t seem likely that she’ll be tested well enough before the semifinals, so don’t be surprised to see a somewhat flat performance from her if she gets to meet a thoroughly motivated Henin.

Prediction: Henin def. Venus

Final

Yes, Henin might be able to scrape past Venus in the semis, but defeating both the Williams sisters in a row, on grass, might just be the most difficult assignment ever conceived of in the sport. Expect no mercy from the World No.1 if she has to face her sister’s conqueror in the final. We may as well start calling it the Williams Invitational Tournament already.

Champion: Serena Williams