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Carlos Alcaraz is back at the All England Club to defend his crown at the 2024 Wimbledon Championships, which got underway on Monday (July 1). However, last year’s winner faces an uphill battle ahead.
Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner lead a jam-packed draw at the latest edition of the tournament. The young guns led by Tommy Paul and home hope Jack Draper will also be looking to make their impact, but not everyone has history on their side.
The short grass season has seen a few names do considerably better than others, courtesy of their skill sets. This elite bunch is also likely to lead the battle for the crown at Wimbledon. Here, we take a look at the top eight contenders for the Slam based on their grasscourt performances over the last three years.
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Note: The following formula was used to calculate the power rankings for this year's Wimbledon: (1x points earned in the 2024 grass season + 0.5x points earned in the 2023 grass season + 0.25x points earned in the 2022 grass season).
8 Lorenzo Mussetti
A junior World No. 1, Lorenzo Musseti successfully transitioned onto the senior circuit at the turn of the decade.
He had his big moment in 2022, winning an ATP 500 crown in Hamburg and has been on a steady upward graph since. This year, he made his first grasscourt final at another ATP 500 event at the Queen’s Club.
While his Wimbledon win-loss stands at an unimpressive 2-4, there is a certain spark in his game. Besides making the Queen’s Club, he has staged deep runs at Stuttgart in the last two years and will be keen on breaking through on the big stage.
7 Alex De Minaur
Alex De Minaur’s incredible scrambling abilities are often associated with success on hardcourts, but the Aussie has proven that his triumphs are not limited to one surface alone.
Coming into the 2024 grass swing, his biggest claim to fame was his finals showing at the Cinch Championships at Queen’s Club last year - beating the likes of Holger Rune and Lorenzo Mussetti along the way.
Nearly 12 months on, he finally has a grass title to his name, winning the Libema Open in 's-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands. The Aussie braved big serving from the likes of Milos Raonic, Ugo Humbert and Sebastian Korda to clinch the morale-boosting trophy.
6 Daniil Medvedev
Natural surfaces have done little for Daniil Medvedev. All his six Grand Slam finals and 18 of his 20 titles on the ATP Tour have come on hardcourts.
That said, the Russian caught lightning in a bottle at last year’s Wimbledon, racing through the draw to make the semifinals where he ran into Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard was on a mission of his own and handed his opponent a straight-sets defeat.
The tournament did show however what Medevedev is capable of doing on grass. He has two more ATP finals to his name — Halle and 's-Hertogenbosch 2022 — and a lot of big-match experience working for him.
5 Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert Hurkacz has come a long way from being the big-serving 6’5” lad who ended Roger Federer’s career at Wimbledon 2021.
The makings of a great grasscourt player were on full showcase in that now-famous encounter. He showed that he could live up to the promise he showed, with a title at Halle a couple of years ago.
And while he has not been able to repeat his Wimbledon heroics from 2021, Hurkacz has posted at least one good result on grass every year since. A Stuttgart semifinal in 2023 and being back in the Halle final this year just days ahead of his arrival at SW19 auger well for him.
And did we mention him being atop the ace leaderboard this year?
4 Tommy Paul
A player who tends to fly under the radar amid flashier, more visible American counterparts, Tommy Paul is very well placed in the lead-up to Wimbledon this year.
Sitting at a career-high ranking of No. 12, Paul will be among the top seeds at this year’s tournament. That he is fresh off his biggest title win at the Cinch Championships at Queen’s Club will be another major boost to his campaign this year.
Paul has always played well on grass, making the ‘s-Hertogenbosch quarterfinal before Queen’s Club this year, and reaching the semifinal at Eastbourne in 2023. Besides his big serve, he has an active dynamism in his game that is rewarded well on the grass. He could be the one to watch out for at Wimbledon this year.
3 Jannik Sinner
The year 2023 was a significant one for Jannik Sinner on grass. Even though his Halle run ended with heartbreak after he was forced to retire in the quarterfinals, it announced his intentions.
The Italian went on to reach the Wimbledon semifinal, improving upon his quarterfinal run from a year ago.
Back at SW19 as a Grand Slam champion and the World No. 1, his goals remain the same. But the 12 months in between would have built up his confidence even more. He has exchanged wins and losses with both of his biggest rivals, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, in this period.
With a game as big and powerful as his, there’s no reason why Sinner cannot add another notch to his win column against either rival on grass.
2 Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic will be gunning to equal Roger Federer’s record of eight Wimbledon titles as he takes to the court at this year’s championships.
The Serb has played little on grass outside of SW19 but made the finals at the last two editions of Wimbledon. He beat Nick Kyrgios in 2022 but lost the final (and a shot at the Calendar Slam) to Carlos Alcaraz in 2023.
Djokovic does not need practice matches on grass. He’s a natural on the surface and with 92 main draw wins against just 11 losses, he knows these courts better than anyone. He is, however, without a title this year.
Whether that fuels the hunger or puts additional pressure on the 24-time Grand Slam champion is for us to see over the next fortnight.
1 Wimbledon defending champ Carlos Alcaraz
It all began with the title at the Cinch Championships at the Queen’s Club Championships last year. The victory propelled the youngster at just the right moment. Heading into Wimbledon, the conversation was all about Novak Djokovic eyeing the Calendar Slam (having already won the Australian and French Open titles).
However, the win at Queen’s Club would have given Alcaraz a lot of self-belief in his abilities on grass. He was a force to reckon with, making the final at SW19 having dropped just two sets en route.
The Spaniard lost another two to start the final against Novak Djokovic, but then staged one of the most special comebacks the Centre Court has ever seen against one of the toughest opponents ever seen.
Twelve months on, Alcaraz is just as high-spirited, having captured a third Grand Slam title at the French Open. If he can keep playing with the sort of freedom and intensity that he has shown on court of late, the Spaniard will take some stopping.
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