Paris Olympics 2024 800m freestyle prediction: Katie Ledecky heavy favorite to storm to fourth consecutive gold

Unlike most other swimming races, the women's 800m freestyle at the Paris Olympics isn't likely to be a close fought battle that keeps the audience at the edges of their seats. However, fans are nearly guaranteed to be treated to yet another Katie Ledecky masterclass.

The American is the fastest woman to take to the pool in the history of the 800m and holds all of the world's top fifteen times in the event. Her world record of 8:04.79 was set at the 2016 Rio Olympics finals and stands to date.

In a testimony to her dominance, Ledecky has only been beaten twice in the 800m freestyle since 2010. One of those races took place at the 2019 World Championships when her compatriot Leah Smith outdid her by 0.19 seconds in the heats. However, Katie Ledecky took revenge when she went on to win the finals.

The second time the 27-year-old was beaten in the 800m freestyle since 2010 was much more recently. Ahead of the Paris Olympics, at the 2024 USA Swimming's Southern Zone South Sectionals, Canadian sensation Summer McIntosh clocked an 8:11.39 for the win, beating Ledecky by nearly seven seconds.

However, McIntosh opted out of the 800m freestyle at the Canadian Olympic Trials, leaving the door wide open for her American counterpart to storm to a fourth consecutive gold in as many tries.

Behind Ledecky, the battle for silver in the 800m free race at the Paris Olympics is likely going to be between China's Li Bingjie and Australia’s Ariarne Titmus.

The duo are the third and fourth fastest swimmers in the event’s history, having clocked times of 8:13.31 and 8:13.59 in the finals of the 2023 Fukuoka World Championship. Bingjie’s 8:13.32 won her silver and the Asian record, while Titmus’ 8:13.59 was good enough to give her the bronze and tie her for the Oceanic record.

While there is not much separating the Chinese and Australian when it comes to times, the latter is certainly the more experienced swimmer, giving her the upper hand as they head into the Games. Titmus' outings in the 800m free have resulted in an Olympic silver as well as two World Championships bronze, and her year so far has already seen her dip as low as 8:14.06.

Lastly, strong contenders to take bronze in the 800m freestyle at the Paris Olympics are Italy's Simona Quadarella and Australia's Lani Pallister, the duo who are seventh and eighth fastest on the world's all-time list.

Quadarella was the bronze-medalist at the event in Tokyo, and can certainly be looking at a repeat of that performance. Most recently, the Italian stormed to gold in the event at the 2024 Doha World Championships, albeit racing a depleted field.

Meanwhile, Lani Pallister’s performance of 8:15.11 at the Budapest World Aquatics Swimming World Cup put her name into contention for the podium at the Paris Olympics. The Australian is also an 800m gold medalist at the 2022 World Short Course Championships.

Paris Olympics Women's 800m freestyle: Schedule and where to watch

While swimming action at the Paris Olympics begins as early as July 27, the women's 800m free will only begin on August 2 with the heats. The finals will take place the very next day, at 21:08 local time.

Fans in the U.S can catch all the live action as Katie Ledecky takes to the pool live on NBC and NBC's Peacock. Other than the 800m freestyle, the swimming action on August 3 at the Games also includes the men's 100m butterfly finals as well as the women's 200m individual medley finals.