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The long-term value of a stock is often seen as tied to its ability to generate free cash flow, a principle that has shaped the Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary’s investment approach. In an Instagram post of a clip from his 2015 interview with Forbes, O’Leary emphasized,
“The only thing that matters is free cashflow. That’s it. There is no other reason to own a stock.”
The Shark Tank investor highlighted the foundation of his philosophy, where cash flow is the primary indicator of a company’s financial health and long-term potential. He also acknowledged the influence of Charlie Munger, who emphasizes on similar financial discipline in investment decisions.
Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary's investment philosophy: The importance of free cash flow
Free cash flow as the foundation of value
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Kevin O’Leary has consistently highlighted free cash flow as the single most important metric when evaluating a stock. In the 2015 Forbes interview, he explained that owning a stock without a reliable return of capital to shareholders is speculative. He noted,
“The only way you can make money is if somebody else is willing to buy that position at a higher price... The only thing that matters is free cashflow.”
He further elaborated that dividend payments alone are not sufficient indicators of a stock’s value if the company cannot sustain its financial performance. He provided an example, explaining,
“Let’s say we find a stock today that’s paying a 3 percent dividend yield, and tomorrow because its forecasts for sales get cut in half, the stock drops by 50 percent. Now it’s yielding 6 percent. I don’t want to own that stock either.”
The Shark Tank investor emphasized the importance of annually reviewing a company’s ability to generate cash to ensure its long-term viability. He described this approach as extremely conservative and focused on the long haul, ensuring that investments remain grounded in sustainable financial metrics.
O’Leary’s ETFs: A practical application of cash flow principles
O’Leary’s emphasis on free cash flow is evident in his ETF investments. In an August 2024 LinkedIn post, he underscored the role of ETFs like O’Shares U.S. Quality Dividend ETF (OUSA) and O’Shares U.S. Small-Cap Quality Dividend ETF (OUSM) in managing his family’s wealth.
He explained that OUSA selects companies from the S&P 500 with the strongest balance sheets and consistent positive cash flow, while OUSM applies a similar approach to small-cap companies within the Russell 2000.
The Shark Tank investor highlighted that these ETFs are designed to exclude underperforming companies that fail to generate meaningful cash flow. By focusing on financial strength, these funds reduce volatility and minimize drawdowns, which he described as essential for stable, long-term returns.
O’Leary noted that OUSA and OUSM form the “backbone holdings” of his family trust, providing monthly distributions and steady performance. He explained that this strategy aligns with his cash-flow-driven philosophy, emphasizing consistent returns over speculative opportunities.
Influence of Charlie Munger on O’Leary’s philosophy
O'Leary has often quoted Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, as one of the most significant influences on his investment strategy. In a January 2021 interview with Motley Fool, O'Leary said that Munger's disciplined focus on cash flow was a guiding principle in his approach.
"Charlie Munger is my guy... He has two words: cash flow.” he explained.
The Shark Tank investor described Munger as an astute evaluator of balance sheets who avoids speculative investments by adhering strictly to financial fundamentals. He underscored that this approach has shaped his focus on cash flow when assessing deals and portfolio holdings.
O’Leary emphasized that Munger’s philosophy ensures a disciplined investment strategy centered on measurable financial performance rather than market speculation.
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