Survivor Season 48: Winner prediction

Survivor Season 48 is currently underway on CBS and Paramount+, with new episodes airing every Wednesday at 8:00 pm ET. According to a blog post published on March 27, 2025, by The Sports Geek, betting odds for the season have shifted significantly following Episode 5.

BetOnline has now placed Kyle Fraser at the top of the board with +180 odds, while early favorite Joe Hunter has dropped to +500. Despite the dip in odds, the blog’s author Kyle Eve continues to support Joe, who started the season with +1000 odds, as his pick to win.

The shift in odds was driven by key events in the latest episode, including Joe’s visible emotional support for Eva Erickson after the immunity challenge. The post noted this moment could either weaken his position due to a now-exposed alliance or improve his standing among jurors.

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Betting shifts after Episode 5 of Survivor 48: Kyle moves up, Joe falls back

Episode 5 of Survivor Season 48 brought a big shake-up in betting odds. Kyle Fraser made the biggest leap, going from +1400 to +180 odds, shifting his implied probability of winning from 6.7% to 35.7%. This came after a strong performance in the immunity challenge where the Vula Tribe, with Kyle’s support, secured an easy win.

Meanwhile, Joe Hunter, who had been leading since Episode 2, saw his odds decline from +220 to +500, now holding a 16.7% implied chance. The dip in Joe’s betting value is linked to his alliance with Eva Erickson being revealed during a crucial moment in the episode.

During the challenge, Eva struggled under pressure but eventually completed her task for the Lagi Tribe. As she shared earlier this season, Eva has autism and sometimes finds it hard to handle stress. After the challenge, Joe went over to comfort her, a gesture that drew attention.

“There are two ways to read this situation. First, huge points for Joe being a considerate person. Second, however, the entire island now knows that Joe and Eva had a secret alliance,” Kyle wrote.

This visibility may affect Joe’s position in the game moving forward, especially with the earlier “California Girls” alliance, Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin, now broken after Thomas was voted out last week. The article still maintains Joe as the pick.

“I’ll continue riding with him to win Survivor following the fifth week.,” he shared.

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Tribe updates and player dynamics heading into Week 6

As of March 27, the competition remains fierce across the three Survivor tribes: Lagi, Civa, and Vula. The Vula Tribe appears strong, with Kyle Fraser’s rise in odds following a team win in the latest immunity challenge. On the other hand, the Lagi and Civa tribes faced difficulties.

Eva’s emotional moment and Joe’s visible support exposed their alliance, while Shauhin Davari also saw his odds slip from +250 to +350.

“Joe’s compassion for Eva is the biggest takeaway from everything. This could very well pay off when it comes to winning the game in the future at tribal council,” Kyle Eve wrote.

Despite Joe’s drop, Eva’s performance in a tense situation also earned her attention. She faced the pressure of completing a physical task and succeeded after several attempts.

Among the Civa Tribe, Kamilla Karthigesu and Mitch Guerra still hold ground, but Mitch saw a drop to +1000. New leader Kyle’s positioning as an attorney might contribute to his strategic edge as the game moves forward.

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Fans can watch new episodes of Survivor Season 48 airing every Wednesday on CBS.