HBO's House of the Dragon series is an adaptation of George R.R. Martin's novella The Princess and the Queen, as well as his compendium Fire and Blood. A prequel to the mainline Game of Thrones story, House of the Dragon follows a war of succession within the Targaryen house back when they were the dominant rulers of Westeros.
Aeriana Targaryen is a mysterious figure introduced in season 2, episode 6, in connection with Steffon Darklyn of the Queensguard. When Rhaenyra is looking for dragon riders of an unconventional background, she tells Steffon that he's a part of the Targaryen bloodline, thanks to Aeriana Targaryen being his grandmother's grandmother.
However, the existence of Aeriana Targaryen has never been mentioned before in House of the Dragon, raising many questions about who she might have been, and the veracity of Rhaenyra's claims. Below are a few possible theories on Aeriana Targaryen's true identity.
Aeriana Targaryen in House of the Dragon may have been a descendant of Gaemon and Daenys
The Targaryen lineage can be traced back to Aenar the Exiled, who fled the Valyrian Freehold after his daughter Daenys "The Dreamer" foresaw the Doom of Valyria.
Daenys would then marry her brother, Gaemon Targaryen, and together they'd continue the Targaryen lineage through their children Aegon and Eleana Targaryen.
However, apart from these two, there is a third child of Gaemon and Daenys who is unaccounted for by historians, and that's where Aeriana Targaryen might fit in. Per Fire and Blood, this third child ended up having their own lineage after marrying a petty lord, and Aeriana may have descended from this bloodline.
Aeriana Targaryen may have married into the Manderlys
When looking at Steffon Darklyn's lineage, fans discovered that he may have been a descendant of Theomore Manderly, as it was one of his daughters who married Lord Darklyn in 72 AC, from whom Steffon is directly descended.
Therefore, if Steffon is a descendant of Ariana Targaryen, it opens the possibility that she may have married into the Manderlys at some point. While Theomore Manderly's wives are all known in the historical record, that doesn't preclude Aeriana from being a grandmother to one of them.
If that is the case, it raises the possibility of Aeriana Targaryen being a bastard child who married into the Manderly house without knowing her true lineage.
It is also possible that Aeriana's connection to the Manderleys comes from being a grandmother to Theomore himself, as little is known about the lineage of his own parents, Rodrick Manderly and Elise Manderly.
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Aeriana Targaryen may not even exist
A core theme of House of the Dragon, and the larger universe of A Song of Ice and Fire, is that people often operate on incomplete, or even incorrect information. The only indication we have of Aeriana Targaryen's existence is Rhaneyra's own account of the matter, which she's using to bring Steffon Darklin to her side.
Even George R.R. Martin's The Princess and the Queen is framed by a dubiously reliable narrator, as the book is presented as the account of Archmaester Gyldayn, and his observations are based on rumors, half-truths, and speculations that cover diverging possibilities.
Given the lack of corroborating evidence we've been shown so far about Aeriana Targaryen, it's that Rhaenyra may have, knowingly or otherwise, told Steffon a fabricated account of his own lineage.
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House of the Dragon covers a tumultuous period in Westeros' history, where the Targaryens ravaged the continent in fire and blood while warring with one another. House of the Dragon is available for streaming on HBO Max in the United States, and JioCinema in India.