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Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark had a historic rookie campaign in the 2024 WNBA season, which set a precedent so high that even Paige Bueckers may not be able to match it.
After leading the UConn Huskies to their 12th national title earlier this week, Bueckers is expected to be drafted first overall in the 2025 WNBA Draft next week. While the UConn star is an exceptional talent poised to make a significant impact in the league, matching Clark's rookie season is a huge challenge.
5 reasons why Paige Bueckers may not match Caitlin Clark’s monster rookie season
#1 Difference in playing style
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Caitlin Clark's rookie season was defined by the impressive numbers she put up throughout her campaign, which led to her breaking multiple scoring and assists records.
On the other hand, while Paige Bueckers is a gifted scorer, her strength lies as a facilitator and playmaker. Her playstyle emphasizes efficiency and making the right play, which may result in lower stats for herself on the board.
#2 Team context and role
When Caitlin Clark joined the Indiana Fever, the team was hungry for a spark, which allowed her to take on a leadership role and dominate the ball. This team dynamic arguably helped amplify her individual stats and influence.
For Paige Bueckers, her role will depend on the team she's drafted into, which will likely be the Dallas Wings, as they have the first overall pick. While she is expected to impact if selected by the Wings, the team already has a strong leader in Arike Ogunbowale.
Bueckers' role and usage rate may not be as dominant as what Clark had, which may result in relatively fewer individual stats.
#3 Injury history and durability
While Caitlin Clark remained healthy throughout her rookie year, the same cannot be said with certainty for Paige Bueckers. The UConn star faced significant injury challenges in college, including a torn ACL that sidelined her for an entire season.
The WNBA has a more demanding schedule than collegiate tournaments, which will test Bueckers physically. Any setbacks may hinder her availability and translate to missed opportunities to contribute and gather stats.
#4 Adjustment to WNBA physicality and speed
The WNBA also presents a leap in physicality, speed and defensive intensity compared to college basketball. While Caitlin Clark was seemingly targeted on that front with double teams and physical plays, she adapted to the elevated challenge seamlessly.
Despite her elite skills, Paige Bueckers may need some time to adjust to the elevated competition, a learning curve that may delay her ability to dominate in the WNBA as quickly as Clark did.
#5 Pressure of expectations
Caitlin Clark entered the WNBA with massive hype and expectations, and she was able to deliver up to it with her historic rookie campaign. While Paige Bueckers also faces a similar situation being in the spotlight, the precedent set by Clark may add further pressure on Bueckers, which may impact her performance on the court.
