Caitlin Clark rookie analysis: Is this the Sue Bird-Diana Taurasi hybrid we've all waited for?

Caitlin Clark’s college superstardom is transferring seamlessly to the WNBA. She’s taken the league by storm, leading the Fever to their first playoffs in 9 years. Some have criticized Clark’s turnover issues or her inefficiency earlier in the season, but Clark is a star already. Players who pass, create advantages and make shots like Clark possess the star package. She is steadily rising towards the top of the WNBA and is she the Sue Bird-Diana Taurasi hybrid we've been waiting for?

The counting stats are gaudy — since the start of July, she’s averaging 22.6 points, 10.6 assists and 5.6 boards a night on a searing 61.3% true shooting. The Fever are 17-16, squarely in the playoff mix. Over the last 10 games, the Fever boasts the league’s best offense (110.9 offensive rating). Clark acts as a true primary engine driving winning impact, a rare feat for a rookie in any sport. Few WNBA players match her combination of heavy offensive responsibility and strong efficiency.

Clark has turned the ball over at a historic rate, but her even more historic passing trumps the giveaways. All great passers, especially young ones, turn the ball over, and Clark’s assist-to-turnover ratio (1.53) is solidly positive. She’ll need to hone some of her accuracy and control at times, but those often come with age. Her record-setting passing is a worthwhile tradeoff.

Caitlin Clark's passing is otherwordly

The Fever rookie is a virtuoso passer, creating and capitalizing on her advantages with elite vision, timing, anticipation and creativity. She launches passes in transition, bouncing and lobbing showtime-style outlet passes. Even deadlier in the half-court, Clark sprays passes to every area of the court. Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith feast in the post and pick and roll as Clark expertly weaves in and out of defenses, threading pocket passes and skipping to the opposite corners.

Rather than just reacting to the defense, Clark dictates offense all on her own, setting up teammates and forcing the defense to make mistakes. That’s an incredibly valuable commodity, especially when paired with other great offensive players like Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. On the season, PBP Stats has the offensive trio of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Lexie Hull at a blistering 117 offensive rating, well above the league-leading New York Liberty at 107.1.

Funnily enough, Clark hasn’t burned down the nets from deep. On the season, she’s shooting a pedestrian 34.1% from three on 8.7 attempts per game and 31% on off-dribble threes. Even though Clark’s shot hasn’t fallen at her college level, the threat of her jumper warps defenses and forces aggressive coverages. Teams sell out to force her to pass the ball.

Clark’s offense flourishes in every other manner. She’s a dynamic advantage creator, smoking defenders with an excellent burst, a diverse, complex handle and adequate strength. Her finishing prowess had always been under-discussed and she’s thriving in the pros, converting 63.6% (81st percentile, per Synergy) of her looks at the rim. With fantastic touch, craft and flexibility, Clark creates easy shots at the rim for herself.

Expanding Clark’s intermediate game will continue to make her more lethal offensively, as she can lack control and turn the ball over in that area. Runners occupy 5.6% of her shot chart. With Clark’s excellent touch and handle, she should be able to punish defenses who sell out to deny her threes and the rim.

Caitlin Clark's flaws and weaknesses

She’s been far less notable defensively on a poor defensive team. Clark suffers from the same problems that plague many high-usage rookie guards — defenders can overwhelm her with strength and she’ll lose focus at times defending off the ball and through screens. The Fever’s defensive rating is identical with her on and off the floor, though, painting her as a roughly neutral defender.

Clark carries her basketball smarts to the defensive end, helping her play make as an off-ball defender. She’s even flashed some rim protection (2.0% block rate), timing up blocks and swiping balls away as offensive players rise up to shoot. She’ll likely never be a game-changing defender, but elite offensive engines can get away with lower defensive impact.

Final thoughts on Caitlin Clark's rookie season

Rookies are supposed to struggle. And Clark did for the beginning of the season as she adjusted to the speed and physicality of the WNBA. But by the end of her rookie season, Clark has established herself as a bonafide star. She’s the catalyst for an ascending playoff team, a feat few rookies can claim.

It would be hasty to claim Caitlin Clark has reached the level of cemented superstars like A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier. That’s an unreasonable expectation even for a prospect and player of Clark’s caliber. It’s easy to argue, however, that she’s already knocking on the door of the league’s top echelon. She’ll likely make all WNBA second team with a real case for first.

Caitlin Clark is a transcendent star. She’s the kind of talent that shifts the landscape of the sport and changes the fortunes of the franchise she lands with. Though she may not reach the level of Candace Parker winning MVP as a rookie in 2008, Clark will join the league’s great first-year sensations on her path to eventual greatness.