Is Azzi Fudd forgoing the WNBA draft the first domino to fall in the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes?

Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd's fates are intertwined in an unusual manner for college teammates. Close friends and both former No. 1 recruits, Bueckers stepped into UConn's Storrs campus in 2020 with the world still in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic, playing in arenas packed with cardboard fans and masks. Fudd joined her a year later, forming a dynamic duo for the Huskies.

Bueckers, the talk of the town since her early teens, made her mark for the Huskies in two well-lauded seasons before redshirting her junior year in 2022. Fudd suffered a similar setback in her junior year, missing almost a year until her return in November.

The Huskies pair have both turned down chances to enter the WNBA draft and instead exercised their extra year of eligibility to pursue an NCAA title that has eluded the Huskies for the last nine seasons.

Bueckers, the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA draft has shied away from revealing her plans post-March Madness, instead keeping her focus strictly on the Huskies and their tournament.

Fudd, who was projected to be a first-round pick, announced on Tuesday her decision to return to UConn for an extra season, taking the mantle from Bueckers as the leader of the Huskies. Fudd's decision raised eyebrows yet was not all that surprising, considering the financial realities of women's basketball.

Comment byu/Rentfreelakerfan from discussion inwnba

The next collegiate season promises to be a fortuitous one for the credit reports of student-athletes. Soon after March Madness winds up, the final approval hearing of the House vs. NCAA settlement on April 7 could open up revenue sharing for student-athletes as soon as next season.

A Division I program like UConn is poised to offer $20.5 million to all its players, which will pocket the hoopers a sum well above the WNBA salary cap and beyond the earning potential of commercial opportunities to most female basketball players.

With talks of a renewed WNBA CBA in the works, many superstar collegiate athletes have had to reckon with the cost of professional stardom in the age of NIL.

Unlike the NBA, the WNBA discerns league revenue and team revenue differently. League revenue mostly constitutes income from national media rights and corporate sponsorships, which comprise the bulk of the league's overall earnings.

Currently, players are only entitled to a share of their team's revenue from ticket sales, merchandise, food and beverage sales, local corporate sponsorships and local broadcasting rights. These sources of revenue are used to fund player salaries in the WNBA. This anachronistic distinction has made it difficult for the league to hit financial goals that are key to unlocking revenue sharing for players.

The WNBA's labor deal requires the league to increase revenue by over 20% annually for two consecutive years for players to receive a share. After exceeding targets in 2024 with $144 million in revenue (a 177% jump since 2019), the league has generated $467 million in revenue since 2020, surpassing cumulative targets by $4.5 million.

To trigger revenue sharing with players, the league must continue to exceed cumulative targets through 2025.

Boasting deals from Chipotle and Buick, Fudd has been compensated well and at a level previously beyond the reach of collegiate athletes. The WNBA rookie salary, which maxes out at $76,000, would be a financial downgrade for the 22-year-old guard, who, unlike Bueckers was not projected to feature near the top of the draft.

The financial implications of Paige Bueckers' WNBA draft decision

NCAA Womens Basketball: NCAA Tournament Second Round-South Dakota State vs UConn - Source: Imagn

Paige Bueckers has been penciled in for the Dallas Wings as the future of their franchise since they won the WNBA draft lottery in November. The 23-year-old Minnesotan has accrued over $1.4 million from her NIL earnings and should be under little financial pressure should she declare for the draft.

Yet, questions persist. The Dallas Wings, who boast only one winning season since relocating from Tulsa as the erstwhile Shock have seen doubts raised over their attractiveness as a landing spot for Bueckers.

Despite sporting a revamped roster with the addition of defensive star DiJonai Carrington and reassurances from general manager Curt Miller, Bueckers may still be enjoined by forces in her orbit not to accept a deal with the Wings.

"We have not heard anything directly that any person eligible for this draft would not want to play in Dallas,” Miller said. “In fact, Arike [Ogunbowale] hears from most of the top possible draft picks in this class, and they’re all really, really excited about possibly pairing with Arike.”

According to WNBA insider Howard Megdal, Paige Bueckers could declare for the draft but tell the Wings that she will not play for them. Instead, she could venture the professional landscape as a rover, playing in Turkey, Unrivaled or Maverick Carter's new venture, which could net her over a million dollars.

The second possibility presented by Megdal sees Bueckers and Azzi Fudd back together, monetizing their TikToks and scaling up to a podcast where Bueckers travels around the world attending sporting events.

Howard Megdal’s reporting on the WNBA CBA and not being sure that Paige Bueckers will be a Dallas Wing. byu/complexchicken0311 inwnba

To curb the growing appeal of staying in college, the WNBA Players' Association has ramped up talks to secure a more equitable revenue-sharing model. In anticipation of a major salary cap spike, nearly all WNBA stars have negotiated contracts that expire after the 2025 season.

In 2026, two more expansion franchises will enter the fray, strengthening the league's talent pool and diluting the distribution of stars. It is speculated that sophomore stars Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese will earn back most of the opportunity cost of playing in the pros as the WNBA becomes profitable for the first time in its history.

Confronted with a dilemma few others have faced, Paige Bueckers now must decide which league's emblem she will sport next season. Fudd's declaration may have already set that in motion.