Can Chicago Sky still make the WNBA Playoffs? Breaking down the scenarios with one game left

WNBA: Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky - Source: Imagn
The Chicago Sky are out of the WNBA playoff picture following Tuesday's 86-70 loss to the Atlanta Dream. [photo: @Imagn]

The Chicago Sky still have a slim chance of making the WNBA playoffs despite losing 86-70 to the Atlanta Dream. Chicago, which played without several key players, dropped to 13-26, 10th in the league. Atlanta's win improved its slate to 14-25, giving it the eighth spot before the season finale on Thursday. Washington (13-26) is at No. 9 as it won the season series (3-1) against the Sky.

The Sky's playoff aspirations aren't entirely in their hands. A win by the Dream against the New York Liberty will end all the drama. Chicago and Washington go home if Atlanta chalks up another victory.


The Chicago Sky could still advance based on WNBA Playoff tiebreaker rules

The WNBA rule book provides the playoff tiebreakers as follows:

(1) Better record in head-to-head games
(2) Better winning percentage against all teams with .500 or better record at the end of the season
(3) Better point differential in games net result of total points scored less total points allowed head-to-head
(4) Better point differential net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents

If the Atlanta Dream and the Washington Mystics lose but the Chicago Sky win, the Mystics (13-26) are automatically out. Chicago and Atlanta, 2-2 in the regular season, have 13-26 and 14-25 records respectively. Alternatively, if Atlanta loses but Chicago and Washington both win, the Sky will be automatically eliminated via the first tiebreaker. The Mystics lead 3-1 in the regular-season head-to-head.

Tiebreaker No. 2 will potentially decide which team advances. Chicago won against the New York Liberty, Indiana Fever, Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces. If they beat the Connecticut Sun on Thursday, that makes it five victories against teams with a .500 or better record.

Atlanta beat the Aces, Storm and the Sun twice this season. Atlanta losing to the Liberty is the first domino for Chicago potentially earning a playoff berth. The Sky also need help from the Phoenix Mercury.

Phoenix (19-20), which lost to Atlanta in August, has a game against Seattle Storm (24-15) on Thursday. If Phoenix loses, Chicago faces the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. If the Mercury win, tiebreaker No. 3 will be used.

A refresher on the third tiebreaker:

(3) Better point differential in games net result of total points scored less total points allowed head-to-head

The Atlanta Dream scored 329 points and gave up 305 points to the Chicago Sky during their four-game series. Atlanta's 24-point differential pushes the team to the playoffs.


Injuries to key players made Chicago's playoff hopes even more difficult

The Chicago Sky struggled after the Olympic break, only managing a 3-12 record since mid-August. Despite that, they are in playoff contention.

Angel Reese’s season-ending wrist injury, combined with the injuries to Kamilla Cardoso, Chennedy Carter and Diamond DeShields for Tuesday’s game meant a win was always difficult.

The blowout defeat meant the Sky's playoff hopes will be over if the tiebreaker goes to point differential.

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Edited by Debasish
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