Olivia Miles scouting report: Will the Notre Dame star dethrone Paige Bueckers? 

After missing all of the 2023-24 season with a knee injury, Olivia Miles’ future remained uncertain. It’s always difficult to return to the court after so much time off, but Miles has done that and more this season. She’s leveled up this season for Notre Dame, establishing herself as an elite WNBA prospect.

This season, Miles averages a career-high 16.6 points on a scorching 67% true shooting clip while tossing 7.2 assists per game. Those assist numbers place her second in the country, only trailing Kansas State’s Serena Sundell. She’s an impact defender as well, evidenced by her strong 2.6% steal rate.

Her early season performances vaulted her up WNBA draft boards, pushing for the top spot in the class. We’ll see if she can dethrone Paige Bueckers, but she’ll have to keep shooting as she is to do so. In the past, Miles has been an underwhelming 3-point shooter. It’s possible for smaller guards to thrive in the WNBA as subpar shooters but it’s a challenge nonetheless.

Olivia Miles has been a sniper this season

Before this season, Miles was a career 24.6% 3-point shooter on 3.1 attempts per game. This season, Miles jacked those numbers up to 46.1% on 5.1 attempts per game. That gargantuan jump in efficiency likely won’t fully sustain, but her uptick in volume and shot versatility adds more optimism for projection.

She’s become a versatile, audacious off-dribble shooter, shooting 42.9% on her off-dribble jumpers. They’re not just cookie-cutter jumpers against under-coverage, either. Miles’ array of stepback, sidestep and deep range threes all suggest she’ll develop into a steller off-dribble shooter at the WNBA level.

Miles’ catch and shoot efficiency has skyrocketed as well, up to 48.6% (17-35) this season compared to 23.1% (9-39) in 2022-23. The sample is still small, but the early season process looks encouraging for future consistency.

This newfound off-dribble shooting prowess will only boost her potent driving game. Miles was always an elite slasher, advantage creator and playmaker. Her shooting only accentuates those skills, forcing defenses to extend and guard her further away from the basket. She’s on a heater inside the arc as well, shooting with incredible efficiency from all over the floor.

Her blend of top-tier first-step quickness, strength, change of speeds and touch let her dominate as a vertical attacker. Defenses simply can’t keep her in front for long enough to deny advantages. Miles’ lack of size at 5’10 and vertical pop limit her ability to draw fouls (25.3% free-throw rate) and could hurt her efficiency at the cup at the pro level.

But for now, Miles can’t miss at the basket. She’s made an absurd 71.2% of her shots at the rim this season, a number that rivals most centers. Among the 772 college basketball players with at least 50 possessions at the rim, Miles ranks 17th in efficiency. That efficiency dips when filtering out transition buckets (58.6% in the half court), which could suggest some struggles against pros.

Even if Miles isn’t an elite finisher, her special advantage creation chops will always allow her to create easy looks for herself and others. With or without a screen, Miles breaks down set defenses like few smaller guard prospects can. Even when Miles doesn’t win cleanly with her handle or burst, she’ll decelerate and euro-step around defenders to score.

Olivia Miles' passing is exceptional

Beyond, her scoring, MIles is a special passing talent. Her raw playmaking volume isn’t as high as it’s been in the past due to her superstar backcourt mate Hannah Hidalgo. Those passing numbers are still strong — 32.1% assist rate and a 2.9 assist-to-turnover ratio are elite. Miles’ ability to create high-level opportunities for her teammates while taking care of the ball is quite rare.

Some of the passes Miles throws are audacious. Beyond regular pick-and-roll reads, Miles exploits defensive gaps with high-end manipulation, flair and vision. Those traits combined with her ability to force rotations as an advantage creator make Miles a possible elite playmaking threat at the next level.

Against WNBA athletes, Miles’ size could be somewhat limiting on the defensive end. She’s quick, strong and coordinated, but there will be matchups where Miles struggles. We’ve seen plenty of smaller guards thrive on defense, though, and her lateral quickness and turnover generation provide a high ceiling.

But teams drafting toward the top of the draft will covet Miles for her offensive ceiling. True initiator guard prospects are scarce in all basketball leagues, making Miles’ potential package invaluable. Dallas will likely draft Paige Bueckers at the top, making the LA Sparks and Chicago Sky the most likely landing spots for Miles.

Miles makes tons of sense for the Sparks, who still need an elite guard to round out their core. They hit big in the 2024 draft with possible future stars on the wing (Rickea Jackson) and on the interior (Cameron Brink). Adding an elite creator guard like Miles will only accentuate Jackson and Brink’s offensive skillsets and boost their efficiency.

At this rate, it’s looking unlikely that Miles will fall past the Sparks at second overall. Prospects like Kiki Iriafen and Dominique Malonga are talented but aren’t as logical positional fits as Miles for LA. If she does somehow trickle down to three, the Sky would be elated to add her. They doubled down on bigs with Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso last season and desperately need more perimeter talent. Miles’ upgraded shooting will be especially critical on a spacing-challenged Chicago team.

Certain teams will prefer Miles’ special advantage creation chops to Bueckers’ all-around versatility. She’ll have to continue shooting the three like she currently is throughout the rest of the season to maintain this level of value. If those improvements are genuine, it’s easy to imagine her developing into one of the better offensive guards in the WNBA. She’s a high-end prospect who will only accentuate the strength of an already excellent 2025 WNBA draft class.