#1 There are no indications Randy Orton will win it back
Randy Orton quite simply isn't in a position to win the WWE title again.
When he won it at WrestleMania 33, his victory was an important part of a lengthy rivalry with Bray Wyatt. But once Wyatt was moved to Raw in the "Superstar Shakeup," Orton seemed to lose his motivation to hold onto the title, which has basically become a prop rather than a pivotal piece of a major storyline.
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Throw in the fact that Orton is already a 13-time WWE Champion, and it's clear that WWE doesn't really need to put the title back on him already. He is not at a point in his career where he has to have the WWE title, which bodes well for Mahal because holding the belt fits his heel character so well.
If this were six or seven years ago when Orton was at his peak, maybe he'd beat Mahal for it. But how many Superstars win back their title in their first rematch after losing it? That's a rarity, and judging by what we've seen in recent weeks, Orton won't be the exception to that rule.