#2 Loss would hurt Lesnar
Let's be honest here.
While Braun Strowman winning The Universal title would be a great surprise for fans and a fun way to kick off the road to WrestleMania 35, its also something WWE might not be willing to do at this point. In fact, with the things that are listed above, it feels very unlikely that WWE has any confidence in Braun Strowman at this point in time.
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With that in mind and Brock Lesnar's UFC match with Daniel Cormier still a possibility, it would be ridiculous for Lesnar to take a loss at The Royal Rumble. Furthermore, Lesnar doesn't take a clean lose very often in The WWE and it's pretty obvious that WWE isn't going to waste one on a superstar they aren't exactly high on.
Of course, WWE could change their minds and go with Braun Strowman as The Universal champion, but that means two things must have happened. The first is that Lesnar agreed to lose to Strowman, which seems highly unlikely. The second thing would be WWE suddenly regaining faith in Strowman as a top guy, which also seems unlikely.