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You might say it all began with a bet.
Dave Meltzer, of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, was posed a question on Twitter about whether or not he thought a small promotion like Ring of Honor could sell out a ten thousand seat show. Dave's response?
"Not anytime soon."
But then, recent WWE Alum Cody jumped into the conversation.
Cody and the Bucks managed to pull off All In, the biggest independent wrestling show of all time. The success of the event led to rumors that the Elite were looking to form their own wrestling promotion. Those rumors wound up being true.
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AEW now has a television deal in the works, has had two successful pay per views, and appears to have all of the financial backing it needs to offer WWE serious competition. But if there is another "Monday Night War" situation brewing, will the WWE win again, or is it going to lose in the long run to AEW?
Here are five reasons why the WWE would win another wrestling war, and five why they might not.
#1 Will Win: The WWE isn't just a promotion, it's a legacy
When the WWE Universe partakes in the sports entertainment product offered up by Raw, Smackdown, and NXT, they aren't just watching a wrestling show. They're engaging with an entity that is both venerable and iconic.
The WWE has ceased to be just a wrestling promotion. In many ways, they are an institution unto themselves, part of the pro wrestling industry and yet separate and above it. Vince McMahon has never sought to court the die hard pro wrestling fandom.
Those segments, he knows, will likely follow the programs anyway. Instead, his strategy has ever been to court the mainstream audience and grow the WWE Universe ever larger.
The strategy has succeeded in the past. Why wouldn't it continue to succeed?
#1 Might not Win: The Pro Wrestling landscape has changed
Used to be, there were few outlets for a pro wrestling fan to get their fix of sports entertainment.
The choices were often limited to what regional promotion had a deal with your local content provider. Promotions with national television deals, such as the NWA and WWE, managed to garner much greater audiences than their regional ilk.
Then cable television began to age out, and streaming became an alternative to getting wrestling content.
No longer were wrestling fans limited to whatever their content provider could offer. Now they could explore the world wide web and seek out new and different wrestling.
This has led to a resurgence of the independent wrestling scene, which had been on life support for years after WWE won the Monday Night War.
It has also led to promotions like Ring of Honor and New Japan Pro Wrestling to find a larger audience.
The average pro wrestling fan is far more savvy than they used to be, and they are not limited in their choices for sports entertainment as in the past. The WWE might be hard pressed to fend off so many challengers and AEW at the same time.
#2 Will Win: WWE is entrenched in the entertainment industry in a way AEW is not
From the days of WWE's classic era, Vince McMahon has pushed strongly for a foothold in mainstream entertainment media. In the 1980s, he did this by creating the "Rock and Wrestling Connection." In the 1990s, he did this in part by having his wrestlers such as Bret Hart appear on cutting edge shows of the era such as the Simpsons.
And in the 2000s, it was the burgeoning fame and movie stardom of The Rock and his Saturday Night Live appearances which kept WWE in the constant media limelight.
In short, WWE has entrenched itself into the media empire in a way that AEW simply has not done. In reality, it would take All Elite Wrestling decades to build such relationships with Hollywood, which means WWE has a huge head start.
#2 Might not Win: The best wrestler in the world works for AEW
Wrestling fandom is often sharply divided on a variety of subjects. However, one thing that the majority of fans and critics can agree upon is that "The Cleaner" Kenny Omega is the best pro wrestler in the world today.
Note that we did not simply say he was the best in ring performer, though certainly a strong argument could be made for that distinction. Instead, we mean that he is the best complete package of what a pro wrestler should be.
Kenny is incredibly athletic and handsome, yet seems approachable and quite human. His ability to speak, wrestle, and tell stories with his matches are unparalleled in his generation. Not since Sting was on his early NWA run has such a wrestler so universally captured the imagination of the public.
Omega could be this generations's Hulk Hogan, and he's working for All Elite Wrestling. WWE should be worried.
#3 Will Win: RAW and Smackdown Live generate steady, reliable revenue for WWE
Way back in 2001, massive upheaval gripped World Championship Wrestling. Ted Turner's company had merged into AOL/Time-Warner, and he lost direct control of his own network, TNT.
The new executives, not impressed with pro wrestling in general and tired of 'throwing good money after bad',' had been shopping WCW around for a possible sale.
Eric Bischoff got some financial backing and very nearly succeeded in buying WCW. If he had, the Monday Night War might not have ended. WCW might even have eventually won.
But Bischoff's backing fell away as soon as TNT announced they would no longer carry WCW's flagship show Nitro. Having a weekly telecast is a big deal for any entertainment franchise, and it was enough to seal WCW's doom.
In the same vein, SmackDown Live and RAW generate massive revenue for WWE. Even if AEW gets a lucrative television deal of its own, it will have to compete with two deeply entrenched iconic franchises with a vast audience. Smackdown and Raw will help ensure that WWE doesn't go under anytime soon.
#3 Might not Win: Streaming could replace television deals in the future
While it's true that Smackdown Live and RAW generate massive amounts of revenue for the WWE in the present, their future is uncertain, perhaps even murky.
In the 1970s, it was foretold that the advent of cable television and Video Cassette Recorders (VCRS) would demolish the movie industry.
This obviously was not the case, as the movie industry is thriving off of billion dollar franchises such as the Avengers. But the changes did force the movie industry to adopt new practices to remain a viable entertainment alternative to the convenience of home based television.
Likewise, cable networks now face their own moment of truth at the hands of internet streaming. While some options exist, such as Sling, there seems to be an inevitable, inexorable trend toward the doom of the traditional cable industry.
In the coming years, Raw and Smackdown may not be the cash generating machines that they are today, and WWE may not be able to rely upon them as insurance against another wrestling war.
#4 Will Win: Many wrestling fans have grown up with the WWE
We've already established that the WWE is more than just a sports entertainment company who puts on pro wrestling matches. They are an entertainment industry icon, a juggernaut who has outlasted and out done the competition time and time again.
Because the WWE has had no serious contender to their dominance of the North American pro wrestling market for over twenty years, they have many fans who have only watched the WWE for their entire lives. To these fans, WWE isn't just a brand of pro wrestling, it is pro wrestling.
While their favorite stars might jump ship to All Elite Wrestling, these die hard generational fans will not ever abandon the WWE. The sense of loyalty is strong with this segment of the WWE Universe, which is good news if another wrestling war breaks out.
#4 Might not Win: The general wrestling fandom have "WWE Fatigue"
The WWE is an entertainment industry juggernaut, an unstoppable machine which takes in pro wrestlers and turns them into superstars.
Unfortunately, it has become a victim of its own success. The WWE creative writers room has often been accused of being an echo chamber for the ideas of one man, Vince McMahon.
While McMahon has crafted many expert characters and story lines over the years, many believe that his particular 'flavor' has grown stale amongst the WWE Universe.
A great example would be John Cena. When he first was elevated to the main event, he still had a bit of edge despite being a babyface. But over time the WWE Universe grew polarized by Cena, with many upset that he dominated the title picture for over a decade.
The WWE 'formula' also failed Roman Reigns during his initial main event push. Though things have gotten better for the Big Dog, a lot of that has to do with better booking and a fresher take on his character.
In short, the WWE is good at what it does, but the general wrestling fandom might be tired of what the WWE is good at.
#5 Will Win: WWE is the globally dominant Wrestling promotion--and That's not likely to change
The WWE has proven that it can infiltrate every corner of the Earth. There have been WWE events held on every continent except Antarctica, and we're betting it's only a matter of time before that happens, too.
WWE has been allowed into the reclusive and secretive country of Saudi Arabia, a major coup both for sports entertainment and western interests. They have put on women's matches in Abu Dhabi, breaking another glass ceiling in entertainment.
With NXT UK, the WWE has expanded into Europe, and Triple H has stated the WWE's goal is to have NXT brands all over the globe.
Simply put, the WWE is entrenched all over the world. No matter how far away they roam from their home offices in America, WWE will find a ready supply of fans eager to spend their hard earned money on WWE products.
#5 Might not Win: There could be a talent exodus from WWE
The biggest threat that the All Elite Wrestling promotion offers to the WWE does not come in the form of television deals or even ratings wars.
Instead, it comes in the form of providing an alternative for big name stars to ply their trade on a major stage, and be well compensated for doing it.
Ever since the fall of WCW in 2001, WWE has enjoyed a relative monopoly on the North American pro wrestling market.
Yes, TNA and Ring of Honor have at times appeared to cut into WWE's market share, but at the end of the day these promotions rely upon part time performers who also ply their trade in other promotions.
This meant that in order to financially thrive a wrestler had to either join WWE or be constantly bouncing around between different obligations to various promotions. Obviously, the stability offered by WWE has been quite appealing.
With AEW, however, there is now an alternative for major stars to earn a good living without having to farm themselves out all over the world. And that could lead to a loss of talent for the WWE, who have already seen Dean Ambrose's departure.
There you have it; Five reasons WWE will win any possible new Monday Night War, and five reasons they might not. Questions or comments? Please leave them after the article and as always thanks for reading!
