Ranking the chances of each Superstar in the NXT Women's Championship #1 contender's ladder match

Charlotte Flair surprisingly defeated Rhea Ripley to become a two-time NXT Women's Champion at WrestleMania 36. The Queen will now be wrestling on NXT for the foreseeable future, and while she will likely face Rhea Ripley in a rematch at some point, her first challenger will be determined this Wednesday on NXT in a six-women ladder match.

All six of these women had to win qualifying matches to get a spot in this match. Chelsea Green was the first to qualify when she defeated Shotzi Blackheart. Mia Yim then scored an upset victory over Dakota Kai, while Tegan Nox managed to beat Deonna Purrazzo.

Io Shirai replaced an injured Xia Li and made a surprising return to NXT, where she completely demolished Aliyah, while Candice LeRae outlasted the upstart Kayden Carter. Dakota Kai was the last superstar to qualify for this match and outlasted Shotzi Blackheart, Deonna Purrazzo, Xia Li, Aliyah, and Kayden Carter in a second chance gauntlet match.

Here we rank the Superstars by who is the most likely to win the match, from least likely to most likely:

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#6 Chelsea Green

Chelsea Green and Robert Stone arrived on the NXT brand in January

Now that Charlotte Flair is NXT Women's Champion, it is incredibly unlikely that Chelsea Green will get the victory. The Queen seems to be wrestling as a heel as of late, as Rhea Ripley was the gutsy babyface against Charlotte Flair at WrestleMania. Therefore, it is unlikely for a heel such as Chelsea Green to be the first woman to challenge Charlotte Flair.

While she has been on the rise with victories over both Kayden Carter and Shotzi Blackheart, it can be argued that she is not yet ready for a title shot. Chelsea Green's first series of matches with Kayden Carter was widely criticized, but she showed much improvement in her match against Shotzi Blackheart.

Robert Stone's client can continue her progression in the NXT brand by facing off with other women like Mia Yim or Candice LeRae. She deserves this spot as she is the most untested performer in this match but her time is not now.

#5 Dakota Kai

Dakota Kai had to jump through several hoops to earn a spot in this match

Dakota Kai is one of the best performers in all of NXT, as her heel character is among the show's best characters after being jealous of her best friend, Tegan Nox, being given a spot on Rhea Ripley's team in the women's War Games match. At the same time, she was overlooked; she surprisingly betrayed her partner and completely brutalized her.

Since then, she has been a revelation with several entertaining television matches against both Mia Yim and Candice LeRae. Her rivalry with Tegan Nox has been excellent as well as the two have had a number of scintillating matchups.

Before Charlotte Flair became the champion, Dakota Kai had to be one of the favorites to win this match as a match between her and Rhea Ripley would have been excellent. However, now that Charlotte Flair is the champion, it does not make much sense to have one of NXT's top heels challenge the champion.

It also makes sense for the Captain of Team Kick's rivalry with Tegan Nox to continue until the next NXT TakeOver, so it is highly unlikely that she will win this match.

#4 Tegan Nox

Tegan Nox overcame an arm injury to defeat the Virtuosa to qualify for this match

Tegan Nox made her return in the summer of 2019 after suffering a heartbreaking injury in the 2018 Mae Young Classic. She wrestled on NXT UK for a brief amount of time before being defeated by Kay Lee Ray. She would then move to NXT and teamed with her friend Dakota Kai for a short period.

However, Dakota Kai betrayed her at NXT TakeOver: War Games III and left her on the shelf for weeks. The two have been a rivalry ever since then. While Tegan Nox won the first match after hitting Dakota Kai with a knee brace behind the referee's back, Dakota Kai has won the next two matches with help from her new bodyguard Raquel Gonzales.

Tegan Nox would be a great opponent for Charlotte Flair as the Queen's moves, which target the leg, would contrast well against Tegan Nox due to her history of knee injuries.

However, her rivalry with Dakota Kai has not reached a definitive conclusion yet, and it would be a much better moment for Tegan Nox to capitalize on the momentum of defeating Dakota Kai and winning their rivalry (preferably whenever the next NXT TakeOver is) and challenge Charlotte Flair later.

#3 Mia Yim

Mia Yim beat one of her rivals in Dakota Kai to qualify for this match

Mia Yim has drifted from feud to feud over the past few months. She seems to still have issues with Dakota Kai as both women have traded victories with each other. Mia Yim was also attacked by the debuting Chelsea Green several months ago after she scored a victory over Kayden Carter. However, the Blasian Baddie has never attempted to get back at Robert Stone's newest client.

She has had a couple of great matches with Io Shirai (the two had a brutal ladder match), but her NXT Women's Championship match against Shayna Baszler at NXT TakeOver: Toronto II was underwhelming.

Mia Yim deserves another chance to have an excellent match for the NXT Women's Championship, and a match with Charlotte Flair would be a great way to test her. While it is unlikely that she will win the championship, she can wow the NXT Universe with a breakout performance.

This way, Charlotte Flair can successfully defend her championship for the first time as this can provide a prelude for other Charlotte Flair title defenses.

#2 Io Shirai

Io Shirai suffered an injury in January that caused her to miss the last two months of NXT

While Io Shirai wrestled as a heel before she suffered an injury, it is unclear whether she will continue to fight in that role. After all, she battered a heel in Aliyah in her return. This leaves one to wonder if she will be turning face as she did receive favorable crowd reactions before suffering an injury.

However, whether she is a face or not, she should face Charlotte Flair. Io Shirai is arguably the best in-ring performer in NXT's women's division, and a match between her and Charlotte Flair would be an absolute dream match.

Charlotte Flair's match with Rhea Ripley at WrestleMania 36 was incredible, but a match between The Queen and the Shirai could surpass that. The only reason that Io Shirai does not have the #1 spot on this list is that she should be the one that dethrones Charlotte Flair, and it does not seem likely that the she will lose the title in her first defense.

#1 Candice LeRae

Candice LeRae was one of the last superstars to qualify for this matchup

Candice LeRae does not have a set role in the NXT women's division, unlike other directionless women in the division like Mia Yim, who has a potential rivalry with Chelsea Green lined up. While she seems to have some issues with Dakota Kai, those have not been visited in the past few months because Dakota Kai is already busy in her rivalries with both Mia Yim and her former partner Tegan Nox. This is why it is the perfect time for her to be slotted into a program with Charlotte Flair.

She has nothing else to do on the show, so it would be great to give her the chance to wrestle for the NXT Women's Championship. Candice LeRae was on Instagram Live with NXT's Instagram page during Rhea Ripley's match with Charlotte Flair at WrestleMania and watched as one of her closest friends in Ripley was forced to tap out and give up her championship.

LeRae would likely love the chance to be able to avenge herself and her underdog style would be great against Charlotte Flair's heelwork. This would be a great way to give her a much-deserved opportunity to prove why she is one of the best in the world. While she probably wouldn't win the title, she would be a perfect first opponent due to her excellent wrestling abilities.