#3 AJ Styles wins
It seems absurd that AJ Styles is considered the underdog in a feud against anyone except John Cena. After all, that is just how over he is with the WWE Universe and that's just how good of a wrestler he actually is. But, in the United States Championship match against Kevin Owens, he is the underdog.
With Owens losing the title to Chris Jericho at Payback before winning it back two nights later on Smackdown Live, it seems counterproductive to have him lose on the very next pay-per-view; especially when his current gimmick is that of The New Face of America.
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But, on the other hand, this is AJ Styles we're talking about. The WWE might well decide that putting the belt on him is the best way to help reestablish the US Championship as one that has to be taken seriously.