#2 Murphy wins a back-and-forth match

Just like Black winning clean, Murphy could certainly pick up a win after a match full of counters and close falls. One thing working in his favor instead of Black's is that Murphy already has a huge win over Daniel Bryan on his resume. He also put forth an extremely competitive match against the Big Dog earlier this year.
Black has a few wins on his resume, like a win over Cesaro, but none as high-profile as the Best Kept Secret. Getting a clean win over the former NXT Champion would not only be somewhat shocking but also a sign of Murphy advancing up the roster.
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I'm not sure how the two men would react after the match if Murphy won. The Best Kept Secret would likely continue to act arrogantly because that is his attitude. Black might attempt to shake his hand and Murphy might reject the gesture or laugh at it. Whoever comes out on top in the feud is heading for a slightly bigger role on RAW and either man is worthy of that status.
While I think a straight-up win by Murphy would probably mean that the match is a one-off, it wouldn't make much sense to have them showdown on RAW a few times only to blow it off with a single match.