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If the season were to end right now, Aaron Judge would probably be the American League MVP for the second time in three seasons. He has been on an almost unfathomable tear for longer than a month and has shown no signs of slowing down. The slow start is well in the rearview mirror.
That isn't a major surprise. He has been one of the absolute best hitters in the sport since 2017, so it was only a matter of time before he got hot. That time is here, and it's one of the few reasons he might win MVP again.
Why Aaron Judge might win a second career MVP
1) He's hitting better than anyone
Defense matters in the MVP argument. That's why Bobby Witt Jr. has a case, and Gunnar Henderson is not far behind. Both players are good hitters and excellent defenders, but the offensive angle plays a little better with voters.
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However, by wRC+ (weighted runs created) Judge has been better than everyone. His 198 is the best mark in the league. Scoring runs is the name of the game, and he's been better at allowing that from the plate than anyone else.
2) He's the best player on the best team
The American League standings involve every team looking up at the New York Yankees. Only one team in baseball has a better record in both leagues. They have been the best AL team, and Judge has been their best player. Juan Soto has been great, but Judge has been better.
The team success angle is dying out, but some voters still believe the MVP should be on an at least somewhat decent squad. Judge has that working in his favor.
3) He's the most valuable
Right now, Aaron Judge leads the league in fWAR by a decent margin. His 3.9 leads Bobby Witt Jr. by 0.3. That isn't the be-all-end-all, but it is the best value stat in baseball. Since it's the Most Valuable Player award, that should factor heavily.
There's still much of the season left, but Judge is a very safe bet to be among the league leaders in WAR this year. That should make him the MVP once again.
