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The Seattle Mariners lead the AL West division as the only team with an above .500 (27-23) record. The Texas Rangers (24-26) trail them closely in second place, while the Houston Astros (22-28), who are third, can't be ignored either despite their early-season struggles.
The AL West was a closely contested division in 2023, with all the top teams within reach of the lead heading into the last month of the regular season. Finally, it boiled down to the Astros emerging as the division leaders, but with an identical record with the Rangers, a better head-to-head record took them through. The Mariners ended up within two games of the division lead.
This time, the Mariners are the leaders, but they could be toppled from the top spot. Let's take a look:
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Three reasons why Mariners won't sustain division lead
1) Astros' impending surge
It's tough to believe the way the Astros started this season despite being odds-on favorites to win the division. They have been dismal so far, but if the last 10 games (7–3) are to be considered, a surge may be in progress.
One of the main reasons for their skid is poor showings from big names. Alex Bregman started the season slow but has found some footing in recent games. Tucker has been phenomenal in recent games, and you can only shut down Yordan Alvarez for so long.
On the pitching end, they have the services of three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who started the season late due to a shoulder issue, but his pitching still has a touch of excellence.
With Verlander hitting the ground every five days, they can be sure of results. All they need is consistency, and they will be back leading the division.
2) Cy Young reinforcements coming in for Rangers
The Rangers have flirted with .500 the last few weeks, but they have some good news in store.
Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young winner, is playing catch-up as of Wednesday but is expected to be there for the post-All-Star stretch. And so is another former Cy Young winner, Jacob deGrom, who's also expected to be in the dugout by midseason.
If the Rangers can be consistent with their record until the midseason, they could have a good post-All-Star stretch. That could help them get back to the division lead and also enter the postseason to return to the World Series.
3) Expected names not showing up for Mariners
Even though the Mariners are performing well, their top guns are either injured or aren't turning up the numbers.
For the last two seasons, Julio Rodriguez has been their star, but this season, his hitting has been off. He's hitting .263 but has only hit two home runs, and his power game is lacking as well.
Another key at-bat, JP Crawford, has spent time on the injured list, and since his return, his hitting hasn't been looking great either. He's only hitting .200 for the season. Offseason acquisitions Mitch Garver (.182) and Jorge Polanco (.187) have also been a shadow of themselves.
Expect another year where all these teams will contest intensely for the AL West top spot.
