Aaron Judge contract: Predicting how much AL Home Run King could earn with his new deal

Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Five
Division Series - Cleveland Guardians v New York Yankees - Game Five

Aaron Judge bet on himself last season, declining a seven-year, $213.5 million deal. He turned in a performance for the ages, posting 62 home runs and the highest wRC+ total that wasn't a Barry Bonds season. He enters free agency with a real chance to get a contract bigger than most in Major League Baseball.

Despite his age and a questionable injury history, the presumptive American League MVP will command a hefty contract when he signs.

Spotrac estimates his market value at about $38 million AAV. That would make him the third-highest earning player and highest position player. Mike Trout makes $35.5 million a year and the New York Yankees outfielder could very well make more than that.

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There's also potential for a bidding war. If a team like the San Francisco Giants offers over market value, the New York Yankees or another team would have to match or exceed that, thus driving the price way up.

This could result in a near $50 million AAV contract, which is currently unheard of in the MLB. Max Scherzer has the highest AAV currently at $43.33 million.

Wild Card Series - San Diego Padres v New York Mets - Game One
Wild Card Series - San Diego Padres v New York Mets - Game One

All told, a realistic contract for Judge could be eight years, $320 million. If he gets a shorter contract, it might end up looking something like five years, $250 million.


What teams might sign Aaron Judge?

Every team will likely show interest in the right fielder, as it's very rare for a player of his stature coming off a season like the one he had to be available.

However, not everyone can afford it and not everyone will want to sign him. Rebuilding teams won't be all that interested.

The Yankees have to be the top team to sign him. He's been a Yankee his entire career and wants to stay a Yankee for the rest of it.

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However, the Giants have a lot of money and a depleted roster. They need talent and might give the outfielder what amounts to a blank check.

The Los Angeles Dodgers also have a lot of money and a desire to improve the roster that fizzled out in the playoffs. The New York Mets will also be interested in luring Judge away from their cross-town rival. They can also afford it.

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Edited by Zachary Roberts
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