Blue Jays vs. Astros: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Houston Astros will attempt to lay the groundwork towards winning their fifth series of the year on Monday when they welcome the Toronto Blue Jays into Daikin Park for the first of a three-game series.

A competitive starting pitching matchup looks to be in the cards for the series opener, with Kevin Gausman set to square off against Hunter Brown. With each bullpen ranked amongst the top 10 in the league, runs could be tough to come by.

Blue Jays vs. Astros recent form and records

Toronto

The Blue Jays saw their two-game win streak come to an end at home against the Seattle Mariners over the weekend. In losing two of three, Toronto hits the road 12-10 overall and in second place in the AL East, trailing the Yankees by two games.

The start to the year finds John Schneider's squad $211 in the black for $100-per-bet MLB bettors, with the team sitting a game under .500 on the road ($35). The Blue Jays have been a moneymaker for over bettors recently, playing to high scorers in six of their last eight matchups.

Houston

The Astros enter this set having alternated wins in each of their first seven series. They got back in the win column over the weekend by taking two of three from the San Diego Padres.

Sunday's loss in the finale dropped Joe Espada's club to 6-6 in front of the hometown faithful, where the team has logged a -$121 return on investment for its backers. The under has cashed in four of their last five games, with the offense only averaging 2.8 runs during that stretch.

Injuries

Toronto

Daulton Varsho CF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Nick Sandlin RP 15 Day IL - Back
Max Scherzer SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Erik Swanson RP 15 Day IL - Hand
Ryan Burr RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Alek Manoah SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Angel Bastardo SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Houston

Taylor Trammell LF 10 Day IL - Calf
Pedro Leon RF 10 Day IL - Knee
Spencer Arrighetti SP 15 Day IL - Thumb
Kaleb Ort RP 15 IL - Oblique
Lance McCullers Jr. SP 15 Day IL - Forearm
Shawn Dubin RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Luis Garcia SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Cristian Javier SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
J.P. France SP 60 Day IL - Shoulder

Starting Pitchers

Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 15 hits (4 HR) and 7 ER with a 20:3 K/BB ratio in four 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 6 hits (2 HR) and 2 ER ball with 6:0 K/BB ratio vs. Atlanta last start.
3-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 54:6 K/BB ratio in 41.1 career IP thrown vs. Houston.
0-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 10:2 K/BB ratio in 13.1 IP on the road in 2025.

Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA in 2025)

Allowed 15 hits (1 HR) and 4 ER with a 22:5 K/BB ratio in four 2025 starts.
Tossed 6.0 IP of 4 hits and 0 ER ball with 4:2 K/BB ratio vs. St. Louis last start.
1-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 10:6 K/BB ratio in 12.0 career IP thrown vs. Toronto.
0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 7:3 K/BB ratio in 6.0 IP at home in 2025.

Must-Watch Hitters

Toronto

The Blue Jays figure to be a tough opponent for Hunter Brown in this spot. Per Team Rankings, the offense is the second-toughest in the league to strikeout, and ranks in the middle of the pack at taking walks.

Anthony Santander saw his nine-game hit streak get snapped yesterday after going 0-for-5 with a couple of strikeouts. He's 3-for-9 lifetime against Brown with a double, and is slashing .274/.318/.500/.818 in his career at Daikin Park.

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Houston

It's been a rough go of it for Christian Walker as he attempts to get in the good graces of Astros fans coming over from Arizona. Houston's new first baseman is only slashing .156/.253/.260 with two home runs and four RBIs through 77 at-bats.

Though his bat came alive over the weekend with a double, home run, and pair of RBIs, he also struck out four times in his 12 overall at-bats. It'll likely be rough sledding tonight as well, with the righty just 1-for-10 lifetime against Kevin Gausman with seven strikeouts.

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Blue Jays vs. Astros Betting Odds

Monday 4/21	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Toronto Blue Jays	+114	+1.5 -192	O 7.5 -105
Houston Astros	-135	-1.5 +160	U 7.5 -115

Blue Jays vs. Astros expert picks and game prediction

With each of these offenses ranked amongst the bottom third of the league in run production, and each bullpen ranking out amongst the top 10, it's tough to envision the scoreboard operators being busy in tonight's series opener.

The Blue Jays and Astros have both been reliable for under bettors. Toronto has played to low scorers in 13 of its 22 games, while Houston is 11-8-2 to the under. With Kevin Gausman and Hunter Brown set to take the mound, investing in the under for both the first five innings and the full game at DraftKings Sportsbook is recommended for tonight's series opener between the Blue Jays and Astros.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Prediction: Houston Wins 3-2

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose