Braves vs. Blue Jays: Game 1, prediction, odds, injuries and picks

The Toronto Blue Jays return home from an extended road trip to open an interleague series against the struggling Atlanta Braves on Monday. John Schneider's squad dropped two of three in Atlanta last season, but swept the Braves the last time they trekked north of the border back in 2023.

Southpaw Easton Lucas will get the start for the home team as he looks to stay undefeated in his second home outing and third overall appearance of 2025. The Braves will counter with Grant Holmes, who has failed to reach the fifth inning in either of his two starts since transitioning from the bullpen to the starting rotation.

Braves vs. Blue Jays recent form and records

Atlanta

The nightmarish start to the MLB betting season remains firmly intact for Atlanta who through 15 played games have managed just one series win. Their 4-11 overall record has produced a -$775 return on investment for their $100-per-bet wagering supporters making them the second-worst bet in the entire league.

Initially +180 favorites to win the NL East for the first time since 2023, their odds of doing so have since lengthened to +300 at DraftKings.

Toronto

Unlike this series' opponent, the Blue Jays have largely exceeded their expectations heading into the regular season. Toronto's odds of winning the AL East hit the board 18/1, but can now be had at +750 due to the team getting out to a 9-7 start that currently finds it perched atop the division standings.

Through 16 played games, the modest record has earned Blue Jays' supporters $217 in baseball betting profit, with the team either winning or splitting all five series played so far.

Injuries

Atlanta

Ronald Acuna Jr. RF 10 Day IL - Knee
N. Alvarez Jr. SS 10 Day IL - Wrist
Spencer Strider SP 15 Day IL - Elbow
Reynaldo Lopez SP 60 Day IL - Shoulder
Joe Jimenez RP 60 Day IL - Knee

Toronto

Daulton Varsho CF 10 Day IL - Shoulder
Max Scherzer SP 15 Day IL - Lat
Ryan Burr RP 15 Day IL - Shoulder
Erik Swanson RP 15 Day IL - Hand
Alek Manoah SP 60 Day IL - Elbow
Angel Bastardo SP 60 Day IL - Elbow

Starting Pitchers

Grant Holmes (0-1, 4.00 ERA in 2025)

Holmes has allowed seven hits (1 HR) and 4 ER with an 11:8 K/BB ratio through two 2025 starts.
Holmes tossed 4.0 innings of three hits and 0 ER ball with a 6:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio against Philadelphia at home last time out.
Holmes is 0-0 with a 40.50 ERA and 0:0 K/BB ratio in 0.2 career IP thrown against the Blue Jays.

Easton Lucas (2-0, 0.00 ERA in 2025)

Lucas has allowed four hits (0 HR) and 0 ER with an 11:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two 2025 starts.
Lucas tossed 5.1 innings of three hits and 0 ER ball with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Boston last time out.
This will be his first career start against the Atlanta Braves.

Must-Watch Hitters

Atlanta

Not a single batter set to step into the box has opposed Toronto's lefty. Fantasy production shouldn't be expected either with Atlanta slashing an ice-cold .185/.252/.286 against left-handers overall with a wretched 54 wRC+.

Austin Riley appeared to find his stroke over the weekend in Tampa Bay, collecting six hits in 13 at-bats. While none went for extra bases, it's likely only a matter of time. A slightly better hitter against left-handed pitching over his career, Riley enters Monday on a six-game hitting streak, putting his player props firmly in play.

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Toronto

The Blue Jays have gotten limited at-bats against Grant Holmes, but enter this series opener off accruing their second-highest run tally of the young season. Unfortunately, the offense's best production has come against left-handed pitching, with the unit only slashing .256/.318/.341 against righties.

Bo Bichette has however been an outlier early on with the shortstop batting .327 with five doubles and eight RBIs against right-handed pitching. He also scratched out five hits in 11 at-bats at Baltimore over the weekend.

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Braves vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds

Monday 4/14	Money Line	Run Line	Total Runs
Atlanta Braves	-118	-1.5 +145	O 9 -120
Toronto Blue Jays	-102	+1.5 -175	U 9 +100

Braves vs. Blue Jays expert picks and game prediction

Given the Braves' struggles, it's somewhat surprising to see DraftKings Sportsbook oddsmakers not listing the home-standing Blue Jays as larger favorites in the series opener. Even more telling are the current odds, which suggest Atlanta may hold the edge in the pitching matchup.

Toronto should be laying a steeper price with Holmes the owner of a 1.38 K/BB ratio, while failing to even see the fifth inning in his two prior starts. Toronto also owns the better of these two bullpens. Look for the Blue Jays to hold serve in the opener.

Braves vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Wins 5-3

About the author

Mike earned a Bachelor of Science in Human Biology from the University of Kansas with dreams of becoming an orthopedic surgeon and team physician. However, his career path took a different turn as he ventured into sports handicapping, writing, and editing.

While preparing for the MCAT, Mike applied to contribute to a site offering free sports picks, which proved to be a pivotal step. His success there garnered interest from larger platforms and startups. Despite his efforts, organic chemistry derailed his medical school ambitions, and he chose to shift fully into sports betting and fantasy sports content creation.

Over a 20-year career, Mike has navigated the highs and lows of professional sports betting. His experience spans working on a late-night sports talk radio show, covering the Chicago Rush in the Arena Football League, managing a content distribution company, owning and operating a vape shop, and creating one of the first profitable DFS affiliate sites—an endeavor that helped buy his current home.

When offline, Mike enjoys working out his green thumb, coaching his son’s sports teams, hosting tea parties with his daughter, and relaxing with his wife and friends. A die-hard Kansas Jayhawks fan, he also proudly bleeds Cubbie blue.

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Edited by Mike Rose