Brewers vs. Yankees: Game 1, prediction, odds and picks - March 27, MLB 2025

Opening Day has arrived, with the Milwaukee Brewers and NY Yankees set to square off in the first of a three-game series on Thursday. Both teams qualified for the postseason last year, with the Brew Crew claiming the NL Central pennant after winning 93 games. Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers won the AL East and represented the American League in the World Series, ultimately falling to the LA Dodgers.

Staff aces will take the bump in the series opener, with Freddy Peralta getting the nod from the Brewers and Carlos Rodon making his second-career Opening Day start.

Brewers vs. Yankees recent form and records

The Brewers closed Spring Training with a 16-14 overall record, going 9-5 at home and 7-9 on the road. The offense performed well, slashing .277/.363/.482/.845 with 46 overall home runs and 177 RBIs. Most impressive were the 60 stolen bases. It was a different story for the pitching staff, however, which was ripped for a 5.79 ERA after allowing 284 hits (43 HR) and 173 ER over 269 total innings.

The Yankees played to a .500 record in the exhibition season, going 8-6 at home and 6-8 on the road. New York's offense also flexed its might in Grapefruit League play, slashing .264/.333/.467/.800 with 59 home runs and 170 RBIs. Even with injuries incurred to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, the pitching staff held up throwing to a 4.43 ERA while conceding 263 hits (46 HR) and 143 ER through 290.2 innings.

Players to Watch

Starting Pitchers

Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA in 2024)

• Peralta went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 92 K over 79.1 IP on the road last year
• This will be his first career start against the Yankees

Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA in 2024)

• Rodon went 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 91 K over 81.0 IP at home last year
• The righty is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 21:6 K/BB ratio in 4 career starts against the Brewers
• He gave up 2 hits and 1 ER in 6.0 IP with 8 K and 1 BB against Milwaukee last season

Must-Watch Hitters

Milwaukee

The Brewers' current lineup hasn't experienced much success in the limited at-bats they've had against Rodon going into this matchup. Jackson Chourio is 0-for-2 with a strikeout. Christian Yelich and William Contreras are a combined 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts, while Garrett Mitchell is yet to see his stuff.

If looking for some value in the player props markets, go with veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who is 3-for-9 lifetime against Rodon with a single, double, and home run.

New York

Before running to the window to bet on Aaron Judge player props, just know this will be the first time he's stared back at Peralta. While the home run slugger has crushed right-handed pitching throughout his career, it might be a good idea to temper expectations out of the chute.

Instead, look to Paul Goldschmidt, who made 36 plate appearances against Peralta, the most on the Yankees, and performed admirably with nine hits, seven going for extra-base hits.

Brewers vs. Yankees Baseball Betting Odds

Thursday 3/27	Money Line	Run-Line	Total Runs
Milwaukee Brewers	+130	+1.5 -166	O 8 -108
New York Yankees	-155	-1.5 +140	U 8 -112

Brewers vs. Yankees expert picks and game prediction

Pitch counts will play a crucial role in handicapping baseball this time of the year. It remains to be seen how long a leash each starter will get from their managers out of the box. That said, Freddy Peralta is an arm I've lost trust in through the years. Since looking like a staff ace for years to come back in 2021, the righty's last three campaigns have been forgettable. He also just got rocked for a 7.20 ERA over 15.0 spring training innings.

With Carlos Rodon apparently locked in and a bulk of the Brewers batting lineup never seeing him in live action before, I'll lay the chalk with the home-based Yankees in the series opener.

• Money Line: -155
• Run-Line: -1.5 +140
• Total Runs: Over 8 -108

Brewers vs. Yankees Prediction: New York Wins 6-3