Carlos Rodon Contract: Predicting the star pitcher's salary in 2023

Last season in San Francisco, Carlos Rodon finished the season with a record of 14-8 with a stellar 2.88 ERA. He also recorded 237 strikeouts, breaking the Giants' franchise record for double-digit strikeout games. If there was ever a time to decline a qualifying offer and hit the open market in free agency, this is it.

"#2 guy this FA for me would have to be Carlos Rodón. Insane fastball (-22 and -26 RVs the last 2 seasons), nasty slider, strikeout machine, 2.25 FIP in 178 innings this year. Already ranked 2nd in starter fWAR. Adding Rodón would make them the best rotation in baseball" - Anthony Esbensen

Last offseason, Carlos Rodon and his agent Scott Boras were unable to secure their long-term, high-salary deal. He instead opted to sign with the San Francisco Giants on a two-year, $44 million contract that included an opt-out after the first season. That opt-out has been key for Rodon, who has now garnered interest from teams all across the league.

Now, the question shifts to where he will land, and more importantly, how much he will earn. The qualifying offer he declined from the Giants was valued at $19.65 million, indicating that Carlos Rodon will be seeking both long-term security and a higher average annual salary.

"If we sign Verlander over Rodon we are not serious for next year. Dude is 39 years old. Another Wilpon move" - MVPETE

While exploring potential deals that Rodon may sign, it makes sense to look at another pitcher who had a tremendous season with the Giants but the team decided not to sign: Kevin Gausman. Last offseason, heading into his age-31 season, the Blue Jays signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract.

For Rodon, who has struggled with his health during his MLB career, a five-year deal may be exactly what he is looking for on the open market. Under Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, the team has been reluctant to hand out deals such as Gausman. Rodon may have no choice but to look elsewhere.

According to FanGraphs, Rodon may be able to sign a lucrative deal in the ballpark of two-year, $85 million based on the estimated numbers swirling around a Jacob deGrom deal.

"I hear that if you are a big name pitcher, the Rangers are talking with you. That includes Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Kodai Senga..." @jonmorosi with the latest on the Rangers' discussions with top free agent starting pitchers. #MLBNHotStove | #StraightUpTX" - MLB Network

Where will Carlos Rodon play next season?

While we cannot rule out a return to the Giants, it seems that Carlos Rodon may be pitching in a different uniform next season. While many teams will be in conversation with Rodon, the Texas Rangers, New York Mets, and Philadelphia Phillies seem like the most likely destinations for the superstar hurler.

The best part of the MLB offseason is the unpredictability. He could very well sign with a team that has not been mentioned anywhere.